Ripple Price Forecast: XRP trades sideways above $3 ahead of REX-Osprey ETF launch

• XRP holds $3.00, reflecting the calm in the crypto market ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
• Bloomberg's James Seyffart hints at REX-Osprey XRP ETF launch this week.
• XRP is still at risk of extending declines below the $3.00 level if macro factors fail to support a bullish outcome.

Ripple (XRP) upholds a bullish picture trading above $3.00 on Tuesday, as market participants await the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision this Wednesday. 

The consensus is that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00 to 4.25%, amid growing optimism for a 50 bps cut.

A rate cut could support the crypto market's bullish outlook in the fourth quarter, as investors seek exposure to riskier assets such as crypto and equities.

Could XRP rally as XRP ETF launch debuts? 

The REX-Osprey XRP Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is expected to start trading in the US this week, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said via X on Monday. Following the launch, investors in the traditional market will, for the first time in the US, have spot exposure to XRP. 

The ETF, expected to trade under the ticker XRPR, differs from Bitcoin and ETH spot ETFs as it provides exposure to the underlying asset's spot price by holding XRP and other XRP ETF products listed globally.

"The fund documents also have language that would allow derivatives usage for exposure if needed but that definitely isn't the primary exposure method," Seyffart stated.

REX Shares, the company behind the XRPR ETF, did not specify the launch date; however, Seyffart stated that the product could start trading this Thursday, alongside Dogecoin's DOJE ETF, which is also supported by the same entity.

Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are playing a fundamental role in the cryptocurrency market, allowing direct exposure to the two largest digital assets by market capitalization for traditional investors on stock exchanges. 

Inflows in BTC and ETH ETFs have fueled price surges in both assets, reflecting increasing demand. Hence, the launch of the XRPR ETF could drive interest in the cross-border money remittance token, possibly fuelling the next run-up to new all-time highs above the $3.66 reached on July 18.

Technical outlook: XRP eyes bullish breakout 

XRP remains above $3.00 at the time of writing on Tuesday, supported by a descending trendline and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.94.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently rebounding at 54 after testing the midline, supports a scenario where bullish momentum builds ahead of a breakout toward the record high of $3.66.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator backs XRP's bullish case, maintaining a buy signal since September 8. Investors will consider increasing their exposure to XRP with the blue MACD line remaining above the red signal line.

XRP/USDT daily chart

Besides the XRPR ETF, the Fed interest rate decision this Wednesday could shape the outlook of the broader cryptocurrency market. A rate cut would boost risk-on sentiment for digital assets, including XRP. 

If market dynamics shift to the bearish side and the price of XRP slips below the $3.00 level, the 50-day EMA at $2.94, the 100-day EMA at $2.81 and the support tested at $2.70 on September 1 would be in line to absorb the selling pressure.