Has the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Broken Down? Can the Crypto Bull Market Really Be Extended?

Introduction

TradingKey – On August 24, David Bailey, crypto advisor to President Trump, declared that “there will be no more Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets in the coming years,” reigniting debate over whether the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle has failed. Is this just fear of a downturn — or has the cycle truly broken? And if so, could the bull market not only extend but evolve?

This article explores the historical context of Bitcoin’s halving cycle, reasons for its potential breakdown, and the conditions under which a prolonged bull market might emerge.

What Is the Bitcoin Halving Cycle?

Bitcoin undergoes a “halving” every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), reducing the mining reward by 50%. So far, there have been four halving events:

Historically, Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs in the second year after each halving, forming a predictable cycle: Halving → Bull Market → Bubble → Bear Market

According to this model, Bitcoin should peak in 2025, followed by a bear market. But many now argue that this cycle may no longer apply.

Why Might the Halving Cycle Be Failing?

If the halving model holds, Bitcoin should be nearing its peak. Yet, voices like David Bailey insist that bear markets are a thing of the past. Others, such as Wang Feng (founder of Blueport Interactive), believe Bitcoin has decoupled from its halving rhythm and now aligns more with U.S. equities and macroeconomic cycles.

Independent analyst Markus Thielen suggests the crypto IPO boom could extend this bull cycle. LD Capital’s Yi Lihua goes further, claiming we’ve entered a supercycle with no fixed four-year rhythm.

Analysts at Bernstein forecast the bull market could last until 2027, citing U.S. policy support and rising institutional participation. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes the rally could stretch to 2028, driven by stablecoin policy shifts announced at Tokyo’s WebX conference.

Will the Crypto Bull Market Truly Be Extended?

The Bitcoin halving cycle has become deeply ingrained in market psychology, with many investors using it as a key reference for timing their strategies. As a result, breaking away from this cycle to achieve a prolonged bull market is no easy feat. However, if a series of powerful catalysts align, there is potential for the crypto bull market to extend — possibly in tandem with the U.S. equity market.

1.Macro Financial Environment

(1) Prolonged Global Monetary Easing

If central banks such as the Federal Reserve continue cutting interest rates or maintain low-rate policies, it would inject substantial liquidity into global markets—benefiting risk assets like crypto.

(2) Widespread Institutional Adoption
The success of spot Bitcoin ETFs is just the beginning. For a structural shift, long-term capital — such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and insurance companies — must treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Their buy-and-hold approach, indifferent to short-term price swings, could fundamentally reshape market liquidity and stability.

(3) Global Recession or Geopolitical Crisis
In scenarios where traditional financial markets underperform, Bitcoin could emerge as a hedge or store of value. If capital flows out of equities and bonds and into crypto for protection, it could significantly extend the bull cycle.

2.Crypto Industry Development

(1) Clear and Favorable Regulatory Frameworks
Major jurisdictions — especially the United States — must enact transparent and supportive crypto legislation. Once legal barriers are removed, traditional tech giants like Amazon and Google could enter the space, bringing mass-market products and millions of users.

(2) New Growth Narratives Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum
Emerging themes such as DeFi 3.0, large-scale tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), and seamless integration of AI with crypto could spark a multi-narrative boom. This would attract fresh capital and users, reducing reliance on Bitcoin’s singular storyline.

(3) Breakthrough Killer Applications
If one or more non-financial, consumer-facing super apps (e.g., in gaming, social media, or AI) gain traction with hundreds of millions of users, crypto’s appeal would shift from speculative investment to real-world utility. This transformation in demand could structurally support a longer bull market.

Key Signals for Determining Whether the Crypto Bull Market Will Continue

While the crypto bull market may extend beyond historical norms, it could also revert to the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle. To assess its sustainability, investors must look beyond any single metric and instead evaluate a broad set of indicators across macroeconomics, market structure, on-chain data, and sentiment. Here’s a breakdown of the most critical signals:

Macroeconomic Environment

Bitcoin Performance

Market Breadth & Rotation

On-Chain & Technical Data

Market Sentiment & Cycle Psychology

Conclusion

The Bitcoin halving cycle may be losing its predictive power — but that doesn’t guarantee a permanent bull market. In today’s complex environment, halving is just one of many factors shaping crypto’s trajectory. If macro conditions, institutional flows, and innovation align, this cycle could evolve into a longer, slower, and more stable bull market.