EUR/USD picks up from lows with tariffs, US CPI on focus
- The Euro bounces up and trims some of the previous losses as the focus shifts to the US CPI release
- Hopes of a EU-US trade deal and upbeat data from China are contributing to easing risk aversion
- EUR/USD is likely to find significant resistance at the 1.1700 area.
The EUR/USD pair is trading higher on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as European Union (EU) and United States (US) representatives continue to look for a deal to avoid a 30% levy announced by US President Donald Trump, with one eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release due later in the day.
The Euro (EUR) picks up from the three-week lows at 1.1655 hit on Monday, but remains capped below the 1.1700 level so far. Looking at the broader trend, the pair continues trapped within a downtrend channel, retreating from a nearly four-year high of 1.1830 set on July 1.
Market sentiment improves somewhat on Tuesday as the negotiations with the US continue, and President Trump announced the visit of EU officials to the US before reiterating his willingness to talk in an interview with journalists at the White House on Monday.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is showing a somewhat softer tone, with investors wary of holding large Dollar long positions ahead of the US consumer inflation report. Investors will analyze June's CPI to assess the impact of tariffs and anticipate the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next monetary policy steps. Any deviation from the market consensus might have a significant impact on US Dollar crosses.
Meanwhile, US President Trump has continued pressuring the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for lower interest rates. Trump's unprecedented harassment is very likely to intensify if the Fed's higher inflation expectations do not materialise, putting the central bank's independence into question. In previous occasions, these dynamics have increased negative pressure on the US Dollar.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.17% | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.01% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.00% | -0.09% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.07% | -0.00% | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.10% | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.29% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.03% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar loses steam with CPI numbers on focus
- US consumer prices are expected to have accelerated to a 2.7% year-on-year pace in June, from 2.4% in May. The core CPI, which strips off the influence of seasonal prices of food and energy, is seen accelerating to 3% in the last twelve months to June from 2.8% in the previous month.
- President Trump called Chairman Powell a "knucklehead, Stupid guy" on Monday and said that inflation is not a serious concern for the economy, affirming that interest rates should be brought down to 1% from the current 4.25%-4.50% range. These attacks are highly likely to intensify if consumer inflation data comes below the market expectations.
- Data from China revealed the economy grew at a 5.2% pace in the second quarter, improving market expectations of a 5.1% reading and reflecting an unexpected resilience to US tariffs. These figures have contributed to improving market sentiment, adding weight to the safe-haven US Dollar.
- In the Eurozone, the German Zew Survey is expected to show a modest improvement in investors' sentiment, although at levels still consistent with a weak economic outlook.
- At the same time, Eurostat will release the Eurozone's Industrial production figures for May, which are expected to show a 0.9% monthly growth, following the 2.4% contraction seen in April.
EUR/USD bounces up from lows, with 1.1700 capping rallies for now
EUR/USD keeps trading within a descending channel from the July 1 highs. The pair is bouncing up from lows, but upside attempts are highly likely to remain limited until the outlook of the trade relationship between the EU and the US clarifies. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart remain within bearish territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below the 50 midline.
Bears failed to confirm below the 1.1660 support area (July 10 and 12 lows), but upside attempts remain limited below 1.1700 so far. A bearish continuation below the mentioned 1.1660 might find support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the late June bullish run, at 1.1640, ahead of the bottom of the bearish channel from July 1 highs, at 1.1630.
On the upside, the 1.1700 and the channel top, now around 1.1710, are likely to pose significant resistance. If that area is breached, the next target will be the July 10 high, at 1.1750.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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