NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds to near 20-day EMA
- NZD/USD bounces back after a four-day losing streak as the US Dollar corrects after refreshing weekly high.
- US President Trump announces tariff rates for his 14 trading partners.
- The RBNZ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
The NZD/USD pair snaps four-day losing streak and rebounds to near 0.6035 during late Asian session on Tuesday. The Kiwi pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) corrects on Tuesday after posting a fresh weekly high the previous day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retraces to near 97.35.
The corrective move in the US Dollar came after United States (US) President Donald Trump announces reciprocal tariffs for 14 countries, notably Japan and South Korea, which are key trading partners of Washington. Trump slaps 25% tariffs on both Japan and South Korea.
Meanwhile, the White House has extended the date of tariff imposition to August 1 from July 9 previously announced, which allows trading partners to re-negotiate trade deals.
In New Zealand (NZ), investors await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to announce a pause and leave its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.25%. The NZ central bank has reduced its OCE by 225 basis points (bps) in its currency monetary expansion cycle, which it started in August 2024.
NZD/USD declines sharply after facing a sharp selling pressure near the critical resistance around Kune 16 high at 0.6090, forming a Double Top chart pattern. The pair struggles to return above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6033, suggesting a bearish near-term trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.
NZD/USD refreshes weekly high near 0.6065 on Thursday. The Kiwi pair trades higher above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around near 0.6007, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approach the 60.00 level. A fresh upside momentum would emerge if the RSI manages to break above that level.
Going forward, a downside move below the June 23 low of 0.5883 will expose it to the May 12 low of 0.5846, followed by the round-level support of 0.5800.
In an alternate scenario, the Kiwi pair is would rise towards the September 11 low of 0.6100 and the October 9 high of 0.6145 if it manages to break above the June 19 high of 0.6040.
NZD/USD daily chart
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 09, 2025 02:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.25%
Previous: 3.25%
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
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