GBP/USD softens as traders eye BoE rate cut next week
- GBP/USD weakens to around 1.3365 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Fed cut the key rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday, as widely expected.
- Financial markets now put the chance of a BoE rate reduction next week at around 88%.
The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory near 1.3365 during the early European trading hours on Thursday, pressured by the rebound in the US Dollar (USD). Nonetheless, the potential downside might be limited after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a rate cut at its December policy meeting. Traders brace for the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, which will be published later on Thursday.
Markets continue to digest the largely anticipated rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday. The US central bank reduced its key interest rate for the third time in a row at its December meeting but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months. Two Fed officials voted to keep the rate unchanged, while Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed in September, voted for a larger rate cut.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said central bankers need time to see how the three reductions this year work their way through the US economy. Powell added that he will closely examine incoming data leading up to the next meeting in January. The Fed's economic projections suggested one rate cut will take place next year, although new data could change this.
On the other hand, the prospect of the Bank of England (BoE) rate reductions could drag the Pound Sterling (GBP) lower against the Greenback. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly an 88% chance of the BoE rate cut next week after signs from economic data that inflation pressure has eased.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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