Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD moves below $53.00 despite Fed rate cut bets
- Silver may recover as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to rise.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in more than an 84% chance of the 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- White House shortlisted Kevin Hassett as Fed chair, a candidate investors view as aligned with Trump’s preference for lower rates.
Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after three days of gains, trading around $52.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the non-interest-bearing Silver may regain its ground amid rising odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets in December, given that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
US data showed unexpectedly low Initial Jobless Claims and stronger-than-expected Durable Goods Orders, yet rate-cut expectations remained intact. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a more than 84% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from the 30% probability that markets priced a week ago.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Wednesday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. The result was stronger than the market expectation of 225,000. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average eased by 1,000 to 223,750.
Fed rate expectations increased by reports that the White House has narrowed its search for the next Fed chair to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Investors see Hassett as supportive of US President Donald Trump’s preference for lower interest rates.
The dollar-denominated Silver attracts buyers with foreign currencies amid a weakening Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the third successive session and trading around 99.50 at the time of writing.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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