Nvidia Earnings on May 20: What History Tells Us About Nvidia Stock's Post-Earnings-Release Moves
Key Points
Given Nvidia's fantastic record of beating Wall Street’s earnings estimates, the probability seems very high that it will do so on May 20.
An “earnings beat" doesn’t necessarily mean the stock will gain following the release.
A company's guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) often affects its stock price more than its current results following an earnings release.
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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is scheduled to report its results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended April 26, 2026) on Wednesday, May 20, after the market close.
The company's earnings release has become the most anticipated during the quarterly earnings season. Nvidia dominates the artificial intelligence (AI) chip and related AI infrastructure market, making it a bellwether for the entire AI space. And this space has been very hot for much of the last three years.
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Last quarter, Nvidia sprinted by Wall Street's estimates for revenue and earnings and guidance -- and there are good reasons to believe it will do the same this quarter.
Image source: Getty Images.
Hyperscalers' planned 2026 capital expenditures point to a fantastic quarter for Nvidia
The biggest indicator that Nvidia is poised for a fantastic quarter is that hyperscalers (big tech companies that operate massive data centers) have continued to increase their planned capital expenditures (capex), with most of this spending earmarked for AI infrastructure.
On their first-quarter earnings calls, the four largest hyperscalers -- Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms -- said their capex plans for 2026 are collectively about $725 billion. This level -- which could further increase as the year progresses -- would be up 77% from last year's $410 billion.
Nvidia's fiscal Q1 guidance and Wall Street's estimates
| Metric | Q1 Fiscal 2026 Result | Nvidia's Q1 Fiscal 2027 Guidance | Nvidia's Projected Growth | Wall Street's Q1 Fiscal 2027 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.06 billion | $78 billion | 77% | $79.17 billion | 80% |
| Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share (EPS) | $0.81 | $1.71* | 111% | $1.78 | 120% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q1 2027 ended April 26. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.
As with the last couple of quarters, Nvidia's guidance assumed no data center AI chip sales to China.
Wall Street's estimates for fiscal Q2 guidance
Investors typically care more about a company's prospects than its past performance. This is why a company's guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) often affects its stock price more than its current results following an earnings release.
| Metric | Q2 Fiscal 2026 Result | Wall Street's Q2 Fiscal 2027 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.74 billion | $87.06 billion | 86% |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.05 | $1.96 | 87% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q2 2027 ends in late July 2026.
Nvidia's strong long-term "earnings beat" track record
Nvidia has a great long-term track record of surpassing Wall Street's earnings estimates. Below is the data for the past 23 quarters, with the results of the last four quarters broken out.
| Period | Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street's Consensus Estimate | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average) | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 23 reported quarters | 21/23 beats = 91.3% |
9%** |
3% to 32%** |
|
Most recently reported four quarters |
4/4 beats = 100% | 5.2% | 3.5% to 8% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Calculations by the author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Nvidia stock's performance following earnings releases
The data below shows the size of Nvidia's earnings beat and its stock price performance on the day following the release for the prior 12 quarters, or three years.
Why 12 quarters? This is the period since Nvidia's results began getting a huge boost from the powerful demand for generative AI driven by OpenAI's release of its ChatGPT chatbot.
| Quarter | Period Ending | Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)* | Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 fiscal 2026 | Late January 2026 | 5% | (5.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 | Late October 2025 | 3% | (3.2%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 | Late July 2025 | 4% | (0.8%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | Late April 2025 | 8% | 3.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | Late January 2025 | 5% | (8.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | Late October 2024 | 9% | 0.5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2024 | 6% | (6.4%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2025 | Late April 2024 | 10% | 9.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2024 | Late January 2024 | 12% | 16.4% |
| Q3 fiscal 2024 | Late October 2023 | 19% |
(2.5%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2023 | 32% |
0.1% |
| Q1 fiscal 2024 | Late April 2023 | 18% |
24.4% |
Data sources: Nvidia, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Focus on results and guidance, not short-term stock price movements
I'll end on the same note as I did last quarter when I did this exercise:
As you can see, there is no significant correlation between the magnitude of the earnings beat and stock price performance after the earnings release. But that shouldn't concern long-term investors. As long as Nvidia continues to deliver strong results, its stock price should continue to increase over the long term.
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Beth McKenna has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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