Where Will FMC Stock Be in 1 Year?
Key Points
FMC shares have fallen by two-thirds over the past year, due to both industry- and company-specific headwinds.
For new investors, there may be opportunity here, due to a pair of potential catalysts.
While still highly speculative, risk/reward is very favorable at present price levels.
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It's an understatement to say that FMC (NYSE: FMC) investors have had a rough year. During this time frame, shares in the agricultural chemicals company have fallen by around two-thirds.
Blame this on poor fiscal results and challenging industry conditions. Yet while this turn of events has been frustrating for existing investors, for those who have yet to enter a position, making FMC a bottom-fisher's buy may not be such a bad idea.
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Consider that this stock, despite its troubles, has not one but two catalysts that could potentially play out over the next year.
Image source: Getty Images.
Various factors weigh on FMC shares
Industry- and company-specific factors have both contributed to FMC's worsening fiscal performance and stock price performance. The agricultural chemicals business, which spans insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides to crop nutrition and seed treatment products, is in a slump. Weak demand and oversupply have dampened sales and squeezed margins.
Furthermore, FMC is facing patent expirations for many of its products. As a result, the company has experienced a meaningful drop in revenue and earnings since 2024. All figures below are adjusted for FMC's sale of its India division last year.
| 2025 | 2024 | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.9 billion | $4.2 billion | (8%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $843 million | $906 million | (7%) |
| Adjusted Earnings per Share (EPS) | $2.96 | $3.48 | (15%) |
Source: FMC
With earnings and cash flow dwindling, FMC's management has had to make some tough decisions for the long-term sake of the company. These have included a dividend cut, and, more recently, plans to consider "strategic alternatives," including a possible sale of the company.
Both these developments led a negative reaction from investors. The dividend cut of 86% led to a big sell-off among dividend-focused investors, as the stock lost its luster as one of the high-yield dividend stocks. News of "strategic alternatives" cast doubt on hopes that FMC would make a return to prior price levels.
The silver lining for new investors
FMC may come with a lot of baggage, but if you've yet to enter a position, this is less of a big deal than you would think. Yes, management has conceded that the situation isn't set to immediately improve from here.
For instance, per management's 2026 guidance, revenue could fall by another 5.2% this year, to $3.6 billion. Guidance also calls for adjusted EBITDA to fall to between $670 million and $730 million, and for adjusted EPS to fall between $1.63 to $1.89.
However, FMC's valuation already accounts for this year's expected earnings drop. At around $14.50 per share, the stock trades at 8 to 9 times estimated 2026 earnings. Competitors like CF Industries Holdings and Mosaic both trade at forward earnings multiples in the mid-teens.
With FMC now one of the undervalued stocks, a strategic acquirer could offer a healthy premium to the current share price, and still be able to pull off an accretive transaction. Even if a buyer fails to show up to the plate, FMC's second potential catalyst remains in play.
Highly speculative, but a favorable risk/reward proposition
While becoming increasingly open to a company sale, management also has another turnaround catalyst up its sleeve. That would be the company's new wave of patented crop protection products.
The challenge with this catalyst is that these new products could take years to really move the needle in terms of sales and earnings.
However, success with these products could pay off more quickly, in one of two different ways. Either these products help to drive better-than-expected results in 2026 and 2027, and/or they help maximize how much strategic buyers are willing to pay for all or part of FMC.
Make no mistake. This stock remains highly speculative. Given the negative sentiment surrounding it, any small amount of bad news could lead to further volatility. Still, given the two potential catalysts, either or both of which may prove sufficient to drive a partial recovery, I would say that risk/reward is favorable at current prices, creating a buying opportunity for new investors.
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Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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