Prediction: This Will Be Amazon's Stock Price in 5 Years

You'd have to go far and wide to find someone who isn't familiar with Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). The company, which began life as a digital bookseller, has evolved into the world's largest retailer, recently surpassing Walmart's sales to take the crown. Yet that's just the tip of the iceberg, as the company is a triple threat as a leading provider of digital advertising and cloud computing.

It's Amazon Web Services (AWS) -- the company's cloud segment -- that has been its crown jewel. The business generates a large chunk of its sales and the lion's share of its profits, and if CEO Andy Jassy has any say in the matter, AWS is going to get much bigger over the next few years.

The chief executive recently made a statement that stunned investors and provided insight into where Amazon could be five years from now.

Image source: Amazon.

I've looked at clouds from both sides now

AWS has long been the pinnacle of Amazon's business, and it's easy to see why. In 2025, cloud revenue of $128.7 billion rose 20% year over year, accounting for 18% of Amazon's revenue and 57% of its operating income. Furthermore, Q4 marked the third consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth for the segment, with sales increasing 24%.

In an all-hands company meeting earlier this week, Jassy shared his vision for Amazon's cloud growth, noting that before the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), he believed AWS would achieve annual sales of $300 billion over the next 10 years. However, the unquenchable demand for AI-related tools and services has changed his thinking. "I think with what's happening in AI, AWS has a chance to be at least double that," he said. Simply put, Jassy now believes AWS can achieve a run rate of $600 billion annually.

Moreover, he downplays concerns about Amazon's plans to spend $200 billion on capital expenditures over the coming year, saying, "We're monetizing (cloud) capacity as fast as we can install it." Put another way, Amazon is building out its data center footprint to meet demand that already exists. That's an enviable position to be in.

If the company meets Jassy's $600 billion benchmark, it would have huge implications for Amazon investors.

Fun with numbers

Assuming Jassy's sales estimates are accurate (and we have no reason to believe otherwise), we can run the numbers to see where Amazon's stock price could be over the next five years.

First, while $600 billion might seem like a stretch, it's actually quite reasonable. As I previously stated, AWS generated revenue of $128.7 billion in 2025, which means the cloud segment would need to grow by 17% annually to reach that goal.

Applying that 17% growth rate to AWS over the coming five years would drive cloud revenue to roughly $282 billion by 2030. Amazon's North American and international segments have consistently grown revenue by 10% annually over the past three years, but to factor a little conservatism into our estimate, let's assume a more modest 8% growth rate. Amazon's e-commerce sales would grow from $588 billion in 2025 to $864 billion by 2030. That would result in total revenue of roughly $1.15 trillion within 5 years.

Amazon currently has a market cap of roughly $2.22 trillion and has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 3 (as of this writing) -- which is statistically similar to its 3-year average. If its P/S ratio remains constant, and if Amazon were to generate revenue of $1.15 trillion in 2030 -- which isn't too much of a stretch -- its stock price could jump 61% to $338 per share, pushing the company's market cap to roughly $3.59 trillion.

The fine print

It's important to remember this is fun with numbers, and any number of issues could crop up that could derail Amazon's forward progress. The economy could go south, the war could drag on, or inflation could run higher. On the other hand, Amazon could exceed expectations and grow much higher from here. While the final tally could be higher or lower, the company's growth trajectory is clear.

Furthermore, at less than 29 times earnings, Amazon is attractively priced, especially given its leadership in digital retail, cloud computing, and digital advertising. Make no mistake: Amazon stock is a buy.

Danny Vena, CPA has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.