The 2026 Social Security COLA Announcement Appears to Have a New Date. Here's What You Need to Know

Social Security is one of the country's most relied-upon social programs, helping millions of people remain financially stable in retirement. It's also a program that has tons of different working parts and is constantly changing -- sometimes monthly, sometimes annually.

One of Social Security's most anticipated annual changes is the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). This year, it was originally expected on Oct. 15. However, due to the government shutdown that began on Oct. 1 and its impact on staffing at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) -- the agency responsible for releasing key data needed to calculate the COLA -- this year's announcement will be delayed.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) is required to announce the COLA by Nov. 1, but the data used to calculate it will be announced on Oct. 24. Let's take a look at how the process works, and what retirees might expect.

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How Social Security calculates the COLA

To determine the annual cost-of-living adjustment, the SSA uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). It's a monthly metric published by the BLS that tracks inflation in expenses common to wage earners, such as food, housing, transportation, and various types of medical care.

The SSA calculates the average CPI-W from the third quarter (July, August, and September), compares it to the previous year's average, and then sets the COLA at whatever the percentage increase was (rounded up to the nearest 0.1%).

For instance, the third-quarter CPI-W average in 2024 was 308.729. In 2023, the average was 301.236. The increase of roughly 2.49% is how we ended up with the 2.5% COLA for 2025.

If the CPI-W number is the same or lower than the previous year's, there will be no COLA, and monthly benefits will remain the same. Retirees won't have to worry about Social Security reducing monthly benefits because of a stagnant or lower CPI-W average.

What should retirees expect from the 2026 COLA?

We won't know the official amount until we have CPI-W data from September, but some organizations specialize in predicting the COLA based on various factors. One of those is the nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), which makes COLA predictions using CPI data, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate.

In its latest prediction, TSCL estimates the 2026 COLA at 2.7%. If this turns out to be correct, the average Social Security benefit (as of August) would increase by around $54 from $2,008 to $2,062.

The Social Security Board of Trustees also makes predictions about upcoming COLAs in its annual report on the state of the program. In its latest report, it noted that the best-case scenario for the 2026 COLA is 3%. This would take the average benefit from $2,008 to $2,068.

For perspective on how those estimates compare to recent figures, below are the past 10 COLAs:

Data source: Social Security Administration.

Again, these predictions are just that: predictions. We won't know the official COLA until we have September's CPI-W data and the SSA releases the official number (although having the CPI-W data means we can make the calculations on our own).

How should retirees feel about the 2026 COLA?

The good news is that a COLA of 2.7% to 3% would be higher than the 2.5% COLA from 2025. The bad news is that this means inflation has also increased. And, as I'm sure many recipients can attest, a cost-of-living adjustment isn't always sufficient to cancel out the inflation that retirees face.

Unfortunately, Social Security benefits have been losing their purchasing power for some years now. A dollar in benefits today doesn't go nearly as far as it did just a decade ago.

Since there isn't anything retirees can do to change how the COLA is calculated and applied, the best thing to do is to plan ahead, and adjust budgets to anticipate a potential loss in purchasing power. That might not be the most encouraging news, but it's always better to be overprepared than underprepared.

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