China’s Energy Storage “Doubling Plan” Sends CATL Soaring — Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Say Buy

TradingKey - Fueled by China’s new energy storage doubling plan and supportive auto supply chain policies, investor interest in the energy storage sector has surged. With Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan issuing bullish calls, global battery leader CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited) saw its shares hit record highs on Monday across both mainland and Hong Kong exchanges.

On Monday, September 15, CATL’s A-shares (300750) briefly surpassed their previous peak from late 2021, surging over 14% intraday before closing up 9.14%, near all-time highs. Its Hong Kong-listed shares (3570) rose 7.44% to HK$465, setting a new record high.

On September 12, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly released the “Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New-Type Energy Storage (2025–2027)”, aiming to increase the country’s new-type energy storage capacity to 180 GW (180 million kW) by 2027, driving around RMB 250 billion in direct investment. The plan continues to prioritize lithium-ion battery-based storage as the dominant technology.

CITIC Securities noted that compared to the 73.76 GW cumulative installed capacity in 2024, this new government initiative implies a 2.44x growth over three years. According to CNESA, under ideal conditions, energy storage capacity could reach 300 GW by 2030, signaling vast market potential over the next five years.

Additionally, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) issued a new “Guideline on Payment Practices for Auto OEMs and Suppliers” on Monday, aimed at improving efficiency and trust between automakers and their suppliers.

Wall Street Bulls Step In

In a report dated September 14, JPMorgan analysts said that demand for energy storage systems and production plans in Q3 has exceeded expectations, leading them to raise their 2025–2026 earnings forecasts for CATL by around 10%, now at the high end of Wall Street consensus.

JPMorgan described CATL’s A-shares as the “cheapest battery stock globally.” Even before the policy announcement, Morgan Stanley had labeled CATL as “the cheapest stock in the industry.”

Leadership Strengthened, Not Weakened

Morgan Stanley emphasized that CATL’s industry leadership is not eroding — it’s strengthening amid competition. The company made significant breakthroughs in the European EV battery market in the first half of 2025, while smaller rivals face profitability challenges. Combined with the current surge in hype around solid-state batteries, CATL’s technological lead makes its valuation particularly attractive relative to peers.

CATL is the world’s largest EV battery manufacturer, supplying companies like Tesla. According to data from SNE Research, global EV battery installations grew 49.2% YoY in the first seven months of 2025, while CATL’s volume jumped 54.3%, capturing a 37.5% market share — ranking #1 for six consecutive years. This is far ahead of second-place BYD, which holds 16%.

Despite headwinds such as softening EV demand, price wars, and tariff conflicts, CATL has maintained strong momentum — unlike BYD, whose Q2 net profit declined for the first time in years.

• CATL’s Q2 net profit rose 34% YoY — above expectations
• H1 net profit grew 33% YoY