U.S. jobless claims rise to 232,000 as labor market shows early signs of cooling

The latest report from the US Labor Department highlighted that initial jobless claims reached 232,000 for the week ending October 18. While this figure remains well below levels seen during major downturns, the uptick suggests that the labour market is showing early signs of softening.

This latest number comes as analysts have been closely watch­ing high‑frequency data to assess whether the previously tight job market is beginning to loosen.

The situation was uncovered after continuing claims, which illustrate that the number of individuals receiving benefits totaled 1.957 million. This figure is a slight increase from 1.947 million the previous week.

However, sources noted that the department failed to provide weekly data for the initial claims from the last three weeks. The department explained that it did not publish its weekly jobless claims report due to the impact of the government shutdown that began earlier this month.

The good news is that, despite these challenges, it still managed to share data via other online sources, while unadjusted state-level claims reports remained available for download.

The federal government shutdown hinders the release of the weekly jobless claims report

The state-level reports have played a crucial role in enabling economists to accurately estimate weekly claims. To achieve this, they combined these state figures with previously published seasonal adjustment factors to accurately estimate weekly jobless claims.

Meanwhile, apart from hindering the release of the weekly jobless claims report, information from sources revealed that the federal government shutdown also delayed several other significant economic reports, including the monthly jobs report.

Due to the absence of official statistics, investors and economists have been forced to depend more on alternative and private-sector indicators to analyze the economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), on the other hand, made an exception for the consumer price index for September. This data, released last month, played a crucial role in helping the Social Security Administration estimate the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients. 

Fed officials express concerns about the job market despite the delay in the BLS’s report

Regarding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ decision to release the September Consumer Price Index, reports stated that the data was made available at 8:30 a.m. in Washington on October 24. This information was originally scheduled for October 15, according to the agency’s statement.

At that time, the BLS also mentioned, “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until regular government services resume.” 

To illustrate the federal agency’s commitment to releasing the data, a reliable source noted that the agency recalled some staff to prepare the report by the end of October.

The source also stated that the government used data from the third quarter’s CPI to figure out next year’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients. The COLA announcement usually follows shortly after the BLS publishes the September CPI. 

According to a spokesperson for the agency, the SSA also announced the COLA on October 24. This updated schedule ensured that the Federal Reserve received the report before their meeting on October 28-29.

With this move, investors expressed their belief that officials might lower interest rates again, but some policymakers hesitated because inflation remained higher than their target. 

Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned in an interview that having the CPI report for that meeting would be very useful. However, he was more concerned about the job market as he waited for the BLS to release the September employment report.

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