Will History Repeat? Bitcoin Traders Eye Rally as US Shutdown Deal Nears

After 40 days of political gridlock, the US federal government appears close to reopening, and crypto traders are once again betting that history may repeat itself.

The latest US government shutdown is the longest in history, after the past went for 35 days between December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019.

Bitcoin Traders Bet on History Repeating as US Shutdown Deal Nears

Bitcoin was trading for $104,501 as of this writing, up by almost 3% in the last hour. It follows a lull weekend, but attention is shifting to X (Twitter) amid hopes of the end to the government shutdown.

According to TradFi media, Senate Democrats have signaled readiness to advance bipartisan spending bills to end the nation’s longest-ever shutdown, which has furloughed around 750,000 federal workers and disrupted key services from national parks to air travel.

Market watchers, including Bitcoin Archive and Walter Bloomberg, reported that at least ten Democrats are expected to support advancing a short-term funding proposal. Further, the Senate is potentially voting “as soon as tonight” to reconsider the House-passed continuing resolution.

The new package would fund the government through January 30, Walter noted, setting up a procedural path to reopen offices within days.

Traders Draw Parallels to Previous Shutdown Resolutions

On social media, traders quickly drew parallels to previous shutdown resolutions and their unexpected correlation with Bitcoin rallies. Analyst Ash Crypto reminded followers that after the US government reopened in early 2019, Bitcoin embarked on a five-month rally, climbing more than 300%.

“The last time the U.S. government reopened after a shutdown, Bitcoin made a five-month rally, surging by over 300%,” wrote analyst Ash Crypto.

“Does that mean a pump is coming next?” Max Crypto also echoed that memory with data points from prior cycles posed.

While that pattern fuels optimism, it is worth noting that the relationship between fiscal reopenings and Bitcoin’s performance may be more coincidental than causal.

Historical data shows that during the 2018–2019 shutdown, Bitcoin fell from about $4,014 to below $3,600, bottoming out just as the government deal was struck.

In the following weeks, the market posted seven consecutive green candles; however, broader factors, including the post-crypto winter recovery, improving liquidity, and shifting global risk sentiment, also drove the rebound.

From February to April 2019, Bitcoin rose above $5,000, marking the start of its next major uptrend. Yet, it is impossible to ignore that while the reopening was not the root cause of the recovery, it acted as a sentiment catalyst.

Today’s setup may echo that dynamic. With US liquidity conditions tightening and the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance, Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend more on monetary signals than on political deals.

Still, many traders view government shutdown headlines as high-impact macro triggers that can shift short-term flows into crypto. This is especially true as traditional markets wobble under fiscal uncertainty.

Amid the optimism, nearly $700 million in Bitcoin open interest has been added. The funding rate is spiking, which means late longs are entering.

“This often doesn’t end well,” analyst Ted cautioned.

Nonetheless, optimism is creeping back into markets that had been bracing for extended paralysis in Washington. If the shutdown ends today, this week will show whether the end of this record-long shutdown sparks another Bitcoin rally or provides a relief bounce.