US-China Trade Truce Spurs Bitcoin; Key Week of Events Looms

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant uplift, driven by easing tensions between the United States and China. The market’s resilience suggests that the immediate nightmare of a renewed tariff war may be receding.

The focus now shifts to high-stakes diplomatic and economic meetings throughout the week, primarily at the APEC summit in Korea.

US-China Dialogue Spurs Immediate Market Reaction

Following the working-level discussions, which concluded Sunday in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the US and China signaled that a framework agreement on major trade issues is nearing completion.

The two nations are considering a one-year delay in China’s export controls of rare earth materials, which is the primary point of recent friction. In return, the US is expected to hold off on imposing the threatened 100% additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

China also agreed to increase imports of US soybeans and agricultural products. In exchange, the US pledged to review the relaxation of specific export controls and the adjustment of port fees imposed on China.

Following the news, the Bitcoin price immediately rose by about 2%. As of Sunday 14:00 UTC, it was trading at $113,450, up 1.62% from the previous day.

The market reacted immediately to the news. This underscores the relief over resolving the 100% tariff threat, which had been a significant constraint on asset prices. Altcoins that had lagged due to geopolitical uncertainty, such as HYPE (+6.67%) and WLFI (+7.33%), also saw sharp increases.

As a result, Bitcoin surged by 6.07% over the past week, reclaiming the $113,000 level, with altcoins quickly following suit. According to CoinGecko data, Ethereum (ETH) climbed 4.52%, and Solana (SOL) gained 5.94%.

Whales Accumulate as Sentiment Shifts

The shift in US-China sentiment was swift. Last Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent discussed additional software export controls as a potential retaliatory measure.

However, on-chain data from the Santiment on-chain analysis platform suggests that large crypto investors quickly anticipated the diplomatic shift and entered buy-the-dip positions. In recent days, wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 ETH have added over 218,000 ETH—nearly $870 million.

This represents about one-sixth of the volume these whales sold during the preceding market decline, indicating firm renewed conviction.

Positive News Flow Returns to the Forefront

Positive industry developments, which the geopolitical turmoil had overshadowed, are also regaining attention. The news of the REX-Osprey XRPR, the first spot XRP ETF in the US market, surpassing $100 million in AUM within a month, is fueling anticipation for upcoming altcoin spot ETF approvals. XRP reacted with an 11.22% weekly gain.

Furthermore, a significant development was JPMorgan’s announcement that institutional clients could use BTC and ETH as loan collateral. This move is viewed as a final step in Wall Street’s most traditional banks embracing digital assets.

The Week Ahead: FOMC and Summit Showdown

Despite the brighter mood, the most critical economic and diplomatic events are yet to come. The market faces a convergence of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting and the APEC Leaders’ Summit this week.

The most crucial dates are Wednesday and Thursday (UST). The Federal Reserve’s October rate decision and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference are scheduled for Wednesday at 18:00 UTC. A 0.25% rate cut is widely expected, but market attention will be fixed on the possibility of the Fed announcing an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT).

Thursday brings the most significant diplomatic event: the face-to-face summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Issues like the TikTok acquisition, fentanyl precursor exports, and US semiconductor export restrictions will be discussed.

Finally, a slew of major US corporate earnings are due this week, with approximately 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting. The earnings releases for Apple(AAPL) and Amazon(AMZN) on Thursday at 21:00 UTC are particularly critical. Given the recent correlation, a significant sell-off in US tech stocks could negatively impact Bitcoin’s price.