Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over? Analyst Sees Echoes Of 2021

Cantonese Cat argues that Dogecoin remains structurally primed for a late-cycle surge that would track the pattern of prior crypto bull markets, insisting that the coin’s decisive move has not yet arrived. In a 50-minute market analysis published on Oct. 19, the analyst ties Dogecoin’s setup to liquidity cycles and inter-market signals, but emphasizes that the DOGE read is simple: the market hasn’t seen the characteristic Dogecoin breakout that, in past cycles, has coincided with Bitcoin’s final acceleration.

“Whenever you have Bitcoin going up, Dogecoin also is forming a pretty decent base,” he said, noting that DOGE has participated only marginally while Bitcoin has ground higher. The trigger, in his view, is explicit. “Once you have Doge breaking into all-time high… that can happen in a hurry… once you have Doge breaking [its] all-time high, generally that’s when the acceleration phase of Bitcoin begins.” He frames that relationship as a recurring feature of cycle dynamics rather than an exception, arguing that the absence of a Dogecoin all-time-high breakout is one of several reasons he rejects the thesis that the broader crypto cycle has already ended.

Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over?

Cantonese Cat links that call to the broader backdrop of risk appetite and liquidity, but he repeatedly narrows the lens to DOGE itself. He characterizes recent price action as a wear-you-out phase—punctuated by a sharp deleveraging “last week… with a big giant wick”—that has hardened bearish sentiment without invalidating the longer-term structure. “We haven’t had Doge breaking the all-time high yet… We have the deleveraging event, but we haven’t had [the] breakout into all-time high,” he said, adding that the coin’s base-building is consistent with how earlier cycles have unfolded before rapid upside.

Part of his conviction stems from how he reads Bitcoin dominance and the timing of altcoin rotations. He argues that dominance has run for “2022, 2023, 2024, almost the bulk of 2025,” looks “a little bit tired,” and has been moving sideways for roughly a year. In his framework, a turn lower in dominance would not necessarily mean Bitcoin weakness; rather, it would imply outperformance by altcoins.

“If we end the cycle right here… this will be the very first time ever that we haven’t had any rotations from Bitcoin to altcoins and we haven’t had that parabolic phase—and this time would be different.” He is explicit that he does not buy the “this time is different” narrative, stating, “I just don’t really think that the cycle is different from [the] previous [one]… because things are still playing out.”

The Dogecoin-specific takeaway is that the market’s recent stress does not negate the historical sequencing he expects. He argues that the coin’s signature move typically arrives after prolonged compression, often in a condensed window.

“Last time [it] only happened within like a couple months and next thing you know it’s just like whoa what happened,” he recalled, cautioning that DOGE’s acceleration window can open quickly once resistance gives way. That pattern recognition underpins his pushback against entrenched pessimism: “A lot of people are just extremely bitter about Doge because this cycle has been wearing everybody out,” he said, but he views that sentiment as typical of pre-breakout conditions rather than evidence of structural failure.

Cantonese Cat repeatedly stresses that he is not giving financial advice and allows that his call could be wrong. Still, he returns to the same fulcrum: Dogecoin hasn’t delivered the hallmark event of a completed cycle.

Until it does—or definitively fails—he treats the coin as coiled rather than concluded. “The reality [is], I just don’t really think that the cycle is different… We haven’t had that [DOGE] breakout,” he said, summing up the risk-on bias that animates his view. In other words, for traders positioning around late-cycle outcomes, his message is that the “Dogecoin moment” remains ahead of the tape—and that the bears could be early.

DOGE Is Price Targets

Although the analyst does not cite fresh DOGE targets in the Oct. 19 video, he defers to levels from his earlier work, where he laid out several price-target frameworks for Dogecoin. In those prior notes, he argued that DOGE could be entering Wave 3 of an Elliott Wave structure after reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulse ($0.20088).

From that framework, he highlighted upside projections around $0.48 (1.0 extension), $0.89 (1.272), $1.23 (1.414), and $1.96 (1.618). In variant commentary, he has also floated outcomes $2.00+ if a breakout accelerates, and in a more speculative scenario—likely from a separate video—he said, “I’m going to lay down the case as to why I think DOGE can hit $4 this cycle…”.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.201.