European Gas market starts heating season relaxed despite lower filling levels – Commerzbank

The filling level of European Gas storage facilities has barely risen at the start of the official heating period: at 83%, it is 10 percentage points lower than the average for the last five years, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

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"In the summer, the EU relaxed its original strict requirement for a fill level of 90% by November 1. The reason for this is the now more flexible supply of LNG Gas. This is the only way to explain why market participants remain relaxed and why prices on the European Gas market, at just over EUR 31 per MWh, are more than 25% lower than last year despite lower filling levels."

"However, we would caution that if the winter starts off cold, causing Gas to be withdrawn from storage faster than usual, the mood could quickly change."

"In the medium term, however, further easing is on the horizon: in its medium-term outlook published yesterday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a record wave of new LNG liquefaction capacity by 2030. The new supply should dampen prices, not least because demand is otherwise unlikely to keep pace with the expansion in supply."