Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD, at fresh record highs, approaching $3,800

• Gols approaches fresh all-time highs $3,800, as the US Dollar drifts lower.
• Investors keep pricing in two further rate hikes in 2025, which keeps US Dollar rallies limited.
• Later today US flash PMI and Fed Powell might provide further clues about the US central bank's rate path.
  

Gold continues to march higher on Tuesday, reaching fresh all-time highs and nearing $3,800 after appreciating more than $140 over the last three trading days. The US Dollar’s pullback ahead of the US PMI and Fed Powell’s speech has provided further support to the precious metals.

Investors' expectations of further Fed rate cuts, on one side, and growing geopolitical concerns, namely the frictions between Russia and its NATO neighbours, have boosted demand for the safe-haven gold this week.

On Tuesday, a range of Fed speakers offered diverse opinions about the bank’s rate path, but futures markets continued to price in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in November and a 70% chance of another one in December. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar’s upside attempts are likely to remain subdued.

Technical Analysis: Gold is shouting for a bearish correction

The technical picture shows an overextended rally from mid-August lows. Bullion has appreciated nearly 15% ever since, and these performances, sooner than later, lead to corrections. The RSI is overbought at most timeframes, supporting that view.

On the upside, the psychological level at $3,800 might be a plausible target ahead of a healthy correction. Further up, the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-September pullback, at $3,828, emerges as a potential target.

To the downside, immediate support is at the intraday low of $3,738 ahead of the previous record high, in the area of $3,700. Further down, the September 15 and 19 lows, around $36,30 would come into focus.