AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sticks to gains around mid-0.7000s; 200-EMA on H4 holds the key

• AUD/USD regains positive traction as softer USD offsets mixed Australian employment details.
• The RBA’s hawkish signal underpins the Aussie, while reduced Fed rate cut bets support the USD.
• The broader technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 0.7020 area during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the weekly high. Spot prices reacted little to mixed Australian employment details and currently trade near the daily high, around mid-0.7000s amid a modest downtick in the US Dollar (USD).

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% in February from 4.1% in the previous month. This, however, was offset by above-expectation hiring. In fact, Australia's employment increased by 48.9K during the reported month from a revised 26.1K in January. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish tilt continues to support the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Meanwhile, the USD bulls pause for a breather following the previous day's strong move up, and it turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook on the back of expectations that rising energy prices would rekindle inflation. This, in turn, might cap the upside for spot prices.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has been showing some resilience below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 0.7000 psychological mark. However, the lack of follow-through buying and the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 0.7100 round figure warrant some caution for bullish traders or positioning for any further appreciating move.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) has rolled back below its signal line and hovers around the zero mark, suggesting fading bullish momentum after the recent recovery from the 0.6990 area. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 43 stays below the 50 midline, reinforcing soft downside pressure rather than a clear trend acceleration.

Immediate support emerges at 0.7015, where the 200-period EMA converges with the weekly low, touched on Wednesday. A sustained break below 0.7015 would open the way toward the 0.6990 support cluster and then 0.6950 if sellers extend control. On the upside, initial resistance stands at 0.7080, which, if cleared, would ease the bearish bias and expose 0.7105 next and 0.7135, where previous reaction highs capped advances.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart