CHF: Safe haven strength and SNB dilemmas – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Jane Foley highlights renewed Swiss Franc strength at the top of the G10 table following tariff-related uncertainty, underlining Switzerland’s classic safe haven credentials. Persistent CHF appreciation is seen as a headwind for exports and investment, with markets pricing only a slim chance of negative SNB rates and some risk of FX intervention. Rabobank trims its 3‑month EUR/CHF forecast to 0.91.

Safe haven flows and policy trade offs

"The CHF is back at the top of the G10 performance table on a 1-day view on the back of the tariff led uncertainty unleashed last Friday."

"In view of the persistence of currency strength, market implied policy rates suggest that the market continues to see a slim chance that the SNB may cut rates below zero this year."

"There is also the possibility that FX intervention will be employed to counter currency strength."

"We have tweaked our EUR/CHF forecasts by lowering our 3-month forecast to 0.91 from 0.92."

"In addition, overriding the demand about the pros and cons of SNB policy is the risk that the CHF will remain strong as long as geopolitical and trade tensions persist."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)