USD/CHF stays below 0.8100 after pulling back from three-month lows
- USD/CHF depreciates as the US Dollar struggles due to the US government deadlock.
- The Greenback may recover ground due to cautious Fed policy outlook.
- The Swiss Franc gains support as safe-haven demand rises amid a global selloff in risk assets.
USD/CHF loses ground after five days of gain, retreating after reaching a three-month high of 0.8108 reached in the previous session. The pair is trading around 0.8090 during the European hours on Wednesday, as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued amid the ongoing US government shutdown.
Traders adopt caution as the deadlock has now entered its sixth week and is poised to become the longest federal funding lapse in US history after the Senate once again failed to pass a short-term funding bill. The most recent attempt to resolve the standoff, Republican-backed temporary legislation, was rejected by the Senate for the 14th time on Tuesday.
However, the USD/CHF pair may regain its ground as the Greenback could further advance due to the cautious sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance for December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated during last week’s post-meeting press conference that another rate cut in December remains uncertain. Powell also cautioned that policymakers might need to adopt a wait-and-see stance until the release of new official data resumes.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from the increased safe-haven demand, driven by a global selloff in risk assets. Global stocks and other risk assets came under pressure as concerns mounted over inflated AI valuations. Risk aversion intensified following warnings from major Wall Street bank CEOs about possible market corrections.
The CHF faced challenges after softer-than-expected inflation data were released earlier this week, fueled speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider returning to negative interest rates to counter persistent disinflationary pressures.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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