USD/JPY must close above 153.00 to continue rising – UOB Group

Upward momentum is starting to build, but for a continued advance, US Dollar (USD) must first close above 153.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Upward momentum is building in USD/JPY

24-HOUR VIEW: "While we held the view that USD 'could edge higher' yesterday, we pointed out that 'any advance is likely part of a higher range of 151.70/152.40.' We added, 'the major resistance at 153.00 is not expected to come into view.' Our directional view was correct, but we did not expect USD to rise sharply to a high of 152.79. Overbought conditions, combined with negative divergences on momentum indicators, suggest that USD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, we expect USD to consolidate, most likely between 152.00 and 152.85."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (22 Oct, spot at 151.75), we highlighted that 'the recent sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook, and USD could trade between 150.00 and 153.00 for now.' Yesterday, USD rose to a high of 152.79. Upward momentum is starting to build, but USD must close above 153.00 before a sustained rise can be expected. The odds of USD closing above 153.00 will remain intact as long as 151.50 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached. Looking ahead, a clear break above 153.00 will increase the likelihood of USD rising above the high seen earlier this month, near 153.30."