USD/CAD weakens as soft Canada CPI cements BoC rate cut bets

• USD/CAD extends losses for the second day, trading near its lowest level since September 1.
• Canada’s headline CPI rose to 1.9% YoY in August, while core inflation held steady at 2.6%.
• US Dollar remains under pressure despite upbeat Retail Sales and Industrial Production data.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/CAD extending losses for the second straight day and dropping to its lowest level since September 1.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3744, down nearly 0.25% on the day, as traders looked past the domestic Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and focused instead on a broadly weaker Greenback ahead of Wednesday’s key central bank decisions.

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August offered a nuanced view of price pressures in the economy, with a clear divergence between headline and underlying inflation.

The headline CPI rose 1.9% YoY in August, slightly below the 2.0% forecast but higher than the 1.7% pace recorded in July. On a monthly basis, CPI unexpectedly declined by 0.1%, defying expectations for a flat reading and sharply lower than July’s 0.3% rise. Meanwhile, the broader Core CPI (MoM), which excludes volatile items but covers a wider basket, rose 0.2%, accelerating modestly from the prior month’s 0.1% gain.

Still, the underlying inflation gauges showed a mixed picture. The BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) held steady at 2.6%, matching the previous month and coming in just under the 2.7% forecast. This reinforces the view that underlying price pressures remain sticky and are still tracking above the central bank’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, BoC Core CPI was flat at 0.0%, cooling from 0.1% in July.

Despite the stickiness in some core metrics, markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, which would bring the overnight rate down to 2.50%. Investors will be closely watching the accompanying statement and press conference for signals on whether the BoC plans to continue easing in the months ahead or remain data-dependent.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under heavy pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping below the 96.00 handle to trade near its lowest level since July 7. Surprisingly, upbeat US macro data failed to arrest the slide. August Retail Sales and Industrial Production both beat expectations, but the Greenback failed to gain traction, suggesting markets are more focused on the Fed’s dovish pivot. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with attention turning to the updated dot plot and Chair Powell’s tone for clues on how far the easing cycle might extend.