Tesla Shares Tumble. Is It Time to Buy the Dip or Run for the Hills?

Key Points

• For a second straight quarter, Tesla posted weak auto deliveries and revenue.

• The company once again hyped its robotaxi and robot ambitions.

• The stock is largely valued based on future bets paying off, making it risky to own.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has long been a stock that's traded more on the vision of its founder Elon Musk than on its actual fundamentals. However, with the stock sinking following Tesla's lackluster second-quarter earnings report -- despite more big promises around robotaxis and robots -- reality might finally be catching up to it.

Musk has done a lot of brand damage to Tesla over the past six months or so. His funding of President Donald Trump's campaign and overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) angered many liberal-leaning consumers. He then later got in a very public feud with the President he helped get elected, alienating himself and Tesla from many conservatives, as well.

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The fallout could be seen in Tesla's Q2 numbers, while tariffs also stung the company. Meanwhile, it will soon see an even potentially bigger headwind due to the expiration of the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) credit by the end of third-quarter 2025.

Its core auto business is struggling

For the second straight quarter, Tesla saw big declines in its core auto business. After a 13% drop in deliveries in the first quarter, deliveries fell by the same amount in Q2. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries decreased by 12%, while other models plunged by 52%.

Tesla's auto revenue plunged 16% to $16.7 billion in the quarter. Within its auto revenue, its regulatory credits, which are pure gross margin, fell by more than half to $429 million. Not surprisingly, this affected Tesla's profitability in the quarter.

Even worse for the company is that many of these regulatory credits will soon be going away. Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will eliminate the current federal $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of September. As a result, Musk admitted that the company could be in for a "few rough quarters" ahead.

Overall, Tesla's revenue fell 12% to $22.5 billion. Its energy generation and storage revenue dropped 7% to $2.8 billion, while its service revenue climbed 17% to nearly $3.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share sank 23% to $0.40, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined by 7% to $3.4 billion.

Tesla's cash flow is also starting to take a hit. Its operating cash flow sank 30% to $2.5 billion, while its free cash flow cratered by 89% to $146 million.

Image source: Getty Images.

More big promises

Given Tesla's poor operating results, it was not surprising that Musk and the rest of management directed the conversation toward Tesla's big bets on autonomous driving and robotics. Musk claimed that Tesla will expand its autonomous ride-hailing service to cover half of the U.S. population by the end of this year, pending regulatory approval.

Now, of course, such a statement makes little sense. The company is currently only testing a small geofenced area in Austin, Texas, with safety drivers, and it has already had a number of safety issues in this small pilot. Its technology appears nowhere close to ready to be adopted in cities countrywide.

But let's say, for argument's sake, that the technology and regulatory approvals work out. The company would then need hundreds of thousands of Level 4 autonomous driving vehicles on the road (not its current Level 2 vehicles). Beyond that, it would also need service and cleaning centers, as well as charging infrastructure in place to handle a fleet of that size. It would also need to have a consumer-facing platform that can handle things like pre-trip pricing, dynamic fare calculations, disputes, and refunds. There is no evidence that Tesla has any of this in place.

Meanwhile, Musk continued to sing the praises of his Optimus robot, saying it will be Tesla's biggest product ever. He said Optimus 3 has an "exquisite" design with no significant flaws. He's looking to have a prototype of the new robot by the end of this year and then scale production next year. He then wants to be able to produce 1 million Optimus robots a year within five years.

Once again, this seems ambitious. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is currently an AI robotics leader, and companies like Boston Dynamics have showcased robots with advanced mobility, so robots can be hugely useful. However, all Tesla has ever demonstrated is a humanoid robot that could only do carefully choreographed tasks. Today, most factory automation is done by specialized, fixed-purpose robots. The use case for a humanoid robot is still very questionable.

Should investors buy the dip?

Even after the stock pullback, Tesla's stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of over 170x based on 2025 analyst estimates, while its profitable auto peers -- like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis -- generally have multiples of 10 or less.

With its core auto business struggling, this indicates that the bulk of Tesla's market cap is predicated on ambitions that may or may not pan out. Given the company's track record of overpromising and under-delivering, this is not a bet I'd make.

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Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.