Starbucks FY2025 Third Quarter Earnings Preview

Market Expectations   

TradingKey - Starbucks is expected to release its fiscal 2025 third quarter earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, followed by a conference call. Below are the market expectations for Starbucks’ fiscal 2025 Q3 revenue and earnings per share (EPS):

• Revenue Expectation: Total revenue for Starbucks’ fiscal 2025 Q3 is projected to reach $9.45 billion, a 3.73% increase from $9.11 billion in the same quarter of fiscal 2024.
• EPS Expectation: Earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal 2025 Q3 is forecasted at $0.69, a 25.8% decline from $0.93 in the same quarter of fiscal 2024.

Key Investor Focus Areas

Comparable Store Sales Growth: In Q2 of fiscal 2025, global comparable store sales declined by 1%, driven primarily by a 2% drop in transaction volume, partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket. The market anticipates stabilization or slight improvement in Q3, particularly in North America and international markets, especially China.

Transaction Volume (Traffic): Declining transaction volume has been a recent pain point. Investors will closely monitor whether Q3 shows signs of recovery, as this is vital for assessing customer demand.

Average Ticket: Average ticket increased by 1% in Q2, and Q3 is expected to continue benefiting from pricing adjustments and product mix optimization.

Store Expansion: In Q2, Starbucks added 213 new stores, bringing the total to 40,789. Continued expansion is expected in Q3, particularly in emerging markets, to support long-term growth.

Digital and Loyalty Program: As of Q2 fiscal 2025, Starbucks Rewards membership in the U.S. reached 34.6 million, up 4% year-over-year. Investors will focus on membership growth and transaction volume through digital channels, which reflect customer loyalty and repeat purchase behavior.

China Business: China is Starbucks’ second-largest market globally but has faced intense competition in recent years. Since late 2024, rumors have circulated about a potential sale of Starbucks’ China business. If the earnings report addresses the China business or partnerships, investors should focus on:

• Strategic Partnership Progress: Whether preliminary agreements with potential partners have been reached or if specific transaction plans are in place.
• Financial Impact: Selling a stake could improve cash flow but may impact long-term growth potential. Investors should evaluate the effect on the balance sheet.
• Long-Term Strategy for China: Whether through a sale or partnerships, Starbucks’ China business strategy will influence its global competitiveness. Investors should pay attention to management’s long-term plans.

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