Why Apple Fell 18.1% in the First Half of 2025

Key Points

• Apple came into the year at a high valuation.

• Trump's tariff war with China generated considerable uncertainty over Apple's costs going forward.

• Apple also delivered disappointing updates on its artificial intelligence efforts, leading to more questions about its future.

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Shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) fell 18.1% in the first half of 2025, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Apple came into 2025 after a 30% gain in 2024 while trading at a high P/E ratio of 40. So it would have taken some very good news for Apple's stock to climb higher in the beginning of the year.

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Instead, Apple suffered from the Trump Administration's trade war, particularly regarding its negotiations with China. Furthermore, management announced there would be a delay in the new AI-powered Siri, with Apple potentially going to third-party models and spurring doubt about Cupertino's AI capabilities.

Where's Siri?

Of all the big technology companies, perhaps none have as much exposure to China as Apple. Despite CEO Tim Cook migrating some iPhone production to India in recent years, about nine in 10 iPhones are still manufactured in China and would therefore be subject to any tariff imposed on goods made in the Middle Kingdom.

Apple received an exemption on tariffs during Trump's first term, but it's unlikely that exemption will continue in the second. As of today, it's very unclear exactly what will happen this time around. After Trump levied a 54% tariff on China on April 2, "Liberation Day," a tit-for-tat mini-trade war erupted that saw that rate balloon to 145% before a temporary truce was announced on May 12, when tariffs were eased to 30% for 90 days as talks continue.

However, just two weeks later, President Trump said that any iPhone manufactured outside the U.S. would be subject to at least a 25% tariff. While this tariff would also of course apply to Apple's smartphone and electronics competitors, Apple could potentially see a margin hit or reduced demand if it tries to pass through those extra costs.

The tariff situation is still unclear.

Image source: Getty Images.

The other big worry Apple endured was about artificial intelligence. Apple has never really been an innovator in new technologies, instead historically incorporating new technologies into customer-friendly devices that provide a great experience.

With AI, it's still unclear how Apple will compete. About a year ago, management announced new AI-powered features to be introduced over the course of the next year. But one year later, the company has clearly disappointed.

In June, Apple announced the new AI-powered Siri would be delayed at least until 2026. Moreover, Bloomberg reported Apple may be giving up on building its own AI models and was in talks with both OpenAI and Anthropic to power the "new" Siri, which is now slated for next year...maybe.

That may be a smart and pragmatic move if these AI-first start-ups can make better large language models than Apple, and if LLMs become somewhat "commoditized." Still, ceding that ground opens a dependence on these new AI companies, and the situation would become really complicated if one of these companies decided to become a hardware competitor.

And OpenAI is doing just that. A few days ago, OpenAI acquired former Apple design wizard Johnny Ive's design start-up for $6.5 billion, with the aim of creating a new AI device. While we don't yet know what kind of device these two are working on, it could potentially be a disruptor to Apple's portfolio. So it's probably not great that Apple may also be depending on OpenAI to power Siri in the future.

Could Apple be disrupted?

There's no reason to panic as an Apple shareholder. After all, Apple has a massive user base that's very loyal, and it certainly has the financial means to invest in or acquire the AI technologies it may need to serve its customers.

Still, with the tariff threat, the difficulty of executing new AI technologies, and a valuation that is by no means cheap, it's no wonder Apple stock took a step back in the first half. Until these issues are resolved, I wouldn't expect a bounce back or any significant upside in the stock.

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Billy Duberstein and/or his clients have positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.