U.S. June non-farm payrolls data will impact financial markets；Powell, Lagarde lead five major central bank governors to discuss monetary policy【The w

TradingKey - After a series of "headwinds" such as "Trump tariffs" and geopolitical tensions, the US stock market has shown its resilience. Last week, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit record highs, exceeding the record highs set in December and February respectively. This week, the market will usher in the US June non-farm payrolls report, and the market generally expects an increase of 116,000, a decrease from 139,000 last month. The US Senate is preparing for a key vote on the Trump administration's "big beautiful" tax and spending bill, striving to pass it before "July 4". The 2025 ECB Central Bank Forum will be held in Sintra from June 30 to July 2, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde attending.

Preview of major events

The US non-farm payrolls report for June will be released on Thursday, which may have an impact on the financial market

The US June non-farm payrolls report will be released on Thursday (3rd) and has attracted much attention from investors. The market believes that once the job market weakens significantly, the Fed may start cutting interest rates as early as July. Economists generally expect that non-farm payrolls will increase by 116,000 in June, down from 139,000 in the previous month, and the unemployment rate will increase slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%.

Although Fed Chairman Powell continues to advocate caution on interest rate cuts because tariffs may increase inflation risks, if this employment report shows signals such as weak wage growth and rising unemployment, it may prompt decision-makers to act in advance. James Knightley, chief international economist at NG, pointed out that if the data shows a significant cooling of employment and a rise in unemployment, it will increase the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates early.

Trump's "Big Beautiful" bill could be passed before July 4

The U.S. Senate is preparing for a crucial vote on the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, striving to pass it before "July 4".

On Sunday, June 29, after a fierce tug-of-war, the U.S. Senate passed an updated version of the "Big Beautiful Bill" with 51 votes in favor and 49 votes against. In order to pass the final vote smoothly, Senate Republicans will have to continue to "fine-tune" the bill to convince all 50 members of the party who need to support it. U.S. nonpartisan analysis agencies pointed out that U.S. President Trump's massive tax cut bill will essentially lead to a transfer of wealth from the younger generation to the older group.

ECB Central Bank Forum opens, Powell and Lagarde attend

The 2025 ECB Central Bank Forum will be held in Sintra from June 30 to July 2. The theme of the forum is "Adapting to Change: Macroeconomic Transformation and Policy Responses". ECB President Lagarde will attend the opening ceremony and deliver a speech. The world's major central bank governors (Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong) will hold a group meeting on Tuesday evening.

From trade frictions caused by tariffs to oil price fluctuations caused by conflicts in the Middle East, central banks are facing the key question of how to deal with these impacts. This high-level meeting held at the ECB's annual meeting will be the first time Lagarde and Powell have publicly discussed on the same stage since the same event in 2024.

OPEC+ eight member countries held a meeting to decide on production policy in August

This Sunday (July 6), eight OPEC+ member countries held a meeting to decide on the production policy for August. Earlier, OPEC+ issued a statement saying that it decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from July, which is the same as the planned increase in May and June.

The market generally expects that OPEC+ may consider increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day again in August, accelerating the recovery of idle production capacity for the fourth consecutive month. Reports say that Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to increase production to regain lost market share. For Russia, despite being one of the world's top three oil producers, the strength of its currency has weakened its earnings per barrel of oil exported, thus affecting the earnings from increased production.

Selected Economic Data

Monday：U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June

Wednesday：U.S. ADP employment for June (10,000 people)

Thursday：U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for June (10,000 people)

This week's featured events

Monday：the U.S. Senate voted on the Beautiful Bill.

Tuesday：the world's major central bank governors (Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of Korea Governor Chang-yong Lee) held a group meeting.

Wednesday：ECB President Lagarde delivered a closing speech at the ECB Forum.

Company Financial Report

Tuesday：Greenbrier (GBX)

Wednesday：First United (UNF)