The Number of Retirees Filing for Social Security Is Surging Under President Donald Trump -- and It's an Ominous Warning

Social Security represents more than just a monthly check for most retired Americans. It's a financial foundation that many, admittedly, would struggle to live without.

In each of the previous 23 years, Gallup surveyed retirees to gauge how important their Social Security income is to making ends meet. Consistently, between eight and nine out of 10 retirees have noted this income is needed, in some capacity, to cover their expenses. In other words, getting as much as possible out of Social Security isn't a luxury -- it's practically a necessity for America's aging workforce.

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But ever since President Donald Trump took office for his nonconsecutive second term, we've witnessed an abrupt shift in Social Security claiming habits for retirees -- and it's nothing short of an ominous warning for the program, as well as those jumping at the opportunity to collect their benefit.

President Donald Trump seated in the Oval Office. Image source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok.

Social Security retired-worker claims are skyrocketing under President Trump

Every month, the Social Security Administration (SSA) provides data on the exact number of retirement insurance applications it receives. In 2024, it collected 1,533,671 retired-worker benefit applications from Jan. 1 through May 31. But over the same five-month timeline in 2025, the SSA has received 1,802,836 retired-worker benefit applications, which equates to an increase of almost 18%!

Some of this surge in filing activity may have to do with the Trump administration enacting a host of changes during the president's first 100 days in office. Though this is far from an encompassing list, these changes have included:

• An executive order to end paper Social Security checks by Sept. 30, 2025. All payments are to be made by electronic fund transfer, such as direct deposit.
• Altering personal identification methods. For instance, changing your direct deposit information can, with a few exceptions, only be done online through a "my Social Security" account with two-factor authentication, or in person at an SSA office.
• A reduction of 7,000 jobs at the SSA to 50,000 employees, as well as the closure of some of the administration's offices.
• The expected reimplementation of Social Security garnishments of up to 15% for beneficiaries who are delinquent on their federal student loans by "sometime this summer."
• An end to the Biden-era overpayment and recovery rules, which capped at a 10% garnishment. Under the Trump administration, up to 50% of benefits can be clawed back per month until an overpayment is fully recovered.

It's possible this flurry of changes may have prompted some retirees to file for benefits now, given the perceived uncertainties associated with application wait times.

Social Security's worsening financial outlook is front and center for retirees

While it's easy to blame this filing surge on numerous changes enacted under President Donald Trump, the far more plausible explanation behind the record pace of retired workers filing for benefits has to do with the steadily worsening financial outlook for Social Security.

Since the first retired-worker benefit check was mailed in 1940, the Social Security Board of Trustees has published an annual report that intricately details how the program is funded and where those dollars ultimately end up. But what tends to be more valuable is the financial projections regarding the sustainability of existing payout schedules over the long term (i.e., the next 75 years).

The Trustees take into account shifts in fiscal and monetary policy, along with a myriad of demographic changes, such as net migration and birth/death rates, to determine how financially sound America's leading social program will be.

Every Trustees Report for the prior 40 years has pointed to a long-term unfunded obligation. In plain English, projected income collection in the 75 years following the release of a report is believed to be insufficient to cover outlays, which primarily includes benefits, but also takes administrative expenses to oversee Social Security into account. From 2024 to 2098, this long-term funding deficit is estimated to be $23.2 trillion.

The OASI's asset reserves are an estimated eight years from running out. US Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund Assets at End of Year data by YCharts.

But there's a far more immediate issue that potentially prompted this surge in retirement benefit filings.

The 2024 Trustees Report also projects the asset reserves for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI) will be depleted by 2033. This is the trust fund responsible for dishing out monthly checks to retired workers and survivors of deceased workers.

To be abundantly clear, the OASI doesn't need a dime in its asset reserves to remain solvent or pay benefits to eligible recipients on a monthly basis. Social Security generates more than 91% of its income from the 12.4% payroll tax on earned income. If Americans keep working and paying their taxes, Social Security benefits will continue to be doled out.

However, the exhaustion of the OASI's asset reserves would mean the existing payout schedule, inclusive of cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs), isn't sustainable. If lawmakers in Congress and/or the president fail to reform Social Security, sweeping benefit cuts of up to 21% may be needed in eight years to sustain payouts through 2098 without the need for any further cuts.

Claiming benefits now may be viewed as a way to front-run any potential cuts to Social Security payouts by 2033.

Image source: Getty Images.

Early filers may be jeopardizing their future

To reiterate -- because this is an extremely important point -- Social Security is in no danger of going bankrupt or becoming insolvent based on how the program is currently funded. Regardless of whether you've been receiving benefits for decades or are just entering the labor force, Social Security will be there for you.

However, your claiming decision plays a monumental role in determining whether or not you'll maximize what you'll receive from America's leading retirement program. Based on a study published six years ago, there's a very slim chance of an early collection age paying off for retired-worker beneficiaries.

In 2019, the researchers at United Income published The Retirement Solution Hiding in Plain Sight, which extrapolated the claiming decisions of 20,000 retired workers using data from the University of Michigan's Health and Retirement Study. United Income aimed to see if one or more ages within the traditional claiming range of 62 through 70 offered a higher probability of optimizing (i.e., maximizing) what beneficiaries would receive during their lifetime (keyword!).

Though only 4% of the 20,000 workers examined had optimized their Social Security lifetime benefit, the bigger takeaway was the textbook inversion between actual and optimal claims.

On one end of the spectrum, United Income found that while 79% of the 20,000 retired workers chose to collect their payout at ages 62, 63, or 64, only 8%, on a combined basis, made an optimal decision at these three collection ages. This means a lot of today's early filers are statistically unlikely to optimize their lifetime payout from Social Security.

In comparison, while only a small percentage of retirees waited until 70 to initially collect their payout, this age would have been optimal for an overwhelming 57% of the 20,000 retired workers analyzed. For a majority of retirees, waiting pays off handsomely.

While there's no guarantee lawmakers will be able to avoid an eventual cut to Social Security benefits, history has shown that bipartisan reforms are typically passed during the 11th hour. The Social Security Amendments of 1983 are an example of a bipartisan reform staving off potential benefit cuts.

The significant uptick in Social Security filings we're witnessing in 2025 is an ominous sign for the health of the program and a potential threat to the financial foundations of early filers.

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