Where Will Archer Aviation Be in 3 Years?

Flying taxis are poised to revolutionize urban travel, and Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) is at the forefront. Archer develops cutting-edge electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs), or flying taxis, and plans to launch its service in the United Arab Emirates as early as this year.

Archer is working toward certification in the U.S. and ramping up its manufacturing capabilities. It's also forming partnerships with cities and airlines to ensure that its flying taxi service takes flight. The technology is still in its early stages, and the next few years are crucial for its success. Here's what the next three years could have in store for Archer Aviation.

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Image source: Archer Aviation.

Archer Aviation is leading the way for flying taxis

Archer Aviation is making good headway with its air taxi business. Last year, the company finished construction on its 400,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Covington, Georgia, where it plans to build 10 of its Midnight aircraft this year.

With the help of Abu Dhabi Aviation, Archer plans to launch its air taxi service later this year in the United Arab Emirates. It also plans to deploy small fleets of its Midnight aircraft to early adopters, like the UAE, over the next 18 to 24 months.

Archer has secured design approval for its first hybrid heliport in the UAE. The General Civil Aviation Agency has approved the design to help transform the Abu Dhabi Cruise Terminal helipad into a hybrid heliport for helicopters and eVTOL aircraft. Once complete, this will be the first hybrid heliport available for early commercial and air taxi operations in Abu Dhabi.

Looking toward the future for Archer Aviation

Archer hopes that operations in the UAE are just the beginning. The company has its sights set on the U.S. market over the next few years. For example, the company wants to begin operations in New York City and released its vision for the air taxi service in April. In a partnership with United Airlines, Archer plans to enable passengers to travel from Manhattan to nearby airports in just five to 15 minutes using its Midnight aircraft.

"With its existing helicopter infrastructure, regulatory support and strong demand, New York could be one of the first markets for air taxis in the United States," Archer CEO Adam Goldstein said.

The company also aims to establish an air mobility network in Los Angeles with a similar goal: connecting customers to airports, thereby significantly reducing travel time. Archer's network would include vertiports at key locations such as Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Orange County, Santa Monica, Hollywood Burbank, Long Beach, and Van Nuys.

Its goal is to begin operations in New York and Los Angeles, potentially as early as next year. Additionally, it has been selected as the official air taxi of the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games. However, before commercial operations in the United States begin, the company must get its Type Certification from the Federal Aviation Administration.

Image source: Getty Images.

In February, the FAA awarded Archer its Part 141 certificate, formally recognizing it as a regulated institution for pilot training. This is the third of four certificates the company has been waiting for from the FAA to launch operations. It is awaiting type certification for its Midnight aircraft, which will be the final certification before it can begin commercial operations in the U.S. It expects to get this certification sometime this year.

While it's still early on to make solid projections, analysts covering Archer Aviation project revenue and earnings per share to look like this over the next few years:

Investors should closely monitor the following

In March, J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Peterson warned investors that commercialization is proving to take longer and be less lucrative than imagined. Peterson said he believed that 2025 was likely off the table, as the rollout in the UAE is proving to be different from what was expected.

However, Archer Aviation management told investors during its May earnings call that it remains on track to launch in the UAE later this year with plans to deliver a piloted Midnight aircraft to the region this summer. That said, if its launch is pushed back in the UAE or other key areas, it would impact the timing of its revenue.

For this reason, investors should closely monitor Archer's cash burn rate, particularly since it is still not generating any meaningful revenue. The good news is that Archer increased its cash balances by $196 million in the first quarter and has over $1 billion in liquidity.

Is Archer Aviation stock right for you?

Archer Aviation is a rising company in an emerging industry that is still in its early stages of development. There remains debate around how much the urban air mobility market may be worth. Not only that, but investors also face risks related to the timing of certifications, production, and the rollout of commercial operations.

The company is well capitalized today, so its cash runway isn't an immediate concern. However, a delayed timeline could extend its cash burn, which could weigh on the stock if it needs to continue raising capital.

Investing in Archer Aviation may not be suitable for all investors. It's pre-revenue, and its growth story is still in the early innings. If you buy the stock, treat your investment in Archer as a speculative growth play and only risk a portion of your portfolio that you are comfortable with on this high-risk and potentially high-reward stock.

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