Is IonQ a Buy?

It's still too early to fully grasp the extent of the quantum computing market's upside. That said, it appears to be a tremendous opportunity. McKinsey & Company's 2025 Quantum Technology Monitor report estimates a potential $100 billion total addressable market in a decade, driven by accelerating investments and innovation.

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) is one of several pure-play quantum computing stocks competing alongside a handful of established technology companies that are also developing quantum computers. Thus far, IonQ has been a remarkable but volatile stock. Shares are up by 1,200% over the past three years, despite IonQ currently sitting 45% below its all-time high.

But past performance doesn't dictate the future. Should investors buy IonQ stock now? Here is what you need to know.

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Skating to where the puck is going

There's a famous ice hockey expression about skating not to where the puck is now, but where it's going to be. That expression captures the spirit of IonQ and the broader quantum computing space.

Quantum computers utilize the laws of physics to manipulate quantum particles (atoms) to perform highly complex and intense calculations, which today's computers cannot. For instance, last year, an experimental quantum chip from Alphabet performed a calculation in roughly five minutes that today's best supercomputers would take longer to perform than the universe has existed!

The problem with quantum computers today is that they're highly unstable and error-prone, making them unreliable for consistent real-world uses. However, as they improve, quantum computing could elevate existing technologies to new heights, opening up new frontiers and industries.

IonQ develops a type of quantum computer known as a trapped-ion quantum computer, which operates at room temperature, making it suitable for data centers. Ultimately, IonQ's vision is to sell quantum computer systems for both on-premises and the cloud, serving research and commercial applications.

Quantum computers could eventually become the crucial bridge to advanced artificial intelligence (AI). They could accelerate drug discovery and development. The possibilities are somewhat unknown, but the potential ceiling is very high for what quantum computers could eventually achieve.

How likely is IonQ to lead the way?

The challenge for investors is that, despite the excitement, it's unclear which companies will lead the way to this future. The McKinsey report pegged the total quantum computing market at $4 billion last year. IonQ has generated just under $80 million in revenue over the past four quarters. At least for now, IonQ is a relatively small player.

International Business Machines reported in early 2025 that the company had surpassed $1 billion in lifetime revenue bookings related to quantum computing. The leading cloud services companies are all developing quantum computing technology, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. Where will IonQ fit into this puzzle? Only time will tell.

IonQ announces new deals every quarter and has made several acquisitions over the past couple of years as it continues to expand. IonQ aims to be a comprehensive quantum computing platform, complete with computer systems, as well as quantum-based networking, sensing, and security technologies.

Wall Street analysts estimate full-2025 revenue at $108 million, followed by $197 million in 2026. That's impressive growth, and IonQ will likely need to sustain that to win enough market share to become an industry leader at some point.

Is the stock a buy?

It's virtually impossible to know at this point whether IonQ will become an industry leader, and to what extent. What investors can do is examine the stock to see how much success it already reflects.

IonQ currently has a market capitalization of $15.5 billion. That's a price-to-sales ratio of 143, using 2025 revenue estimates, and 78, using 2026 revenue estimates. That makes IonQ one of the most expensive stocks you'll find on Wall Street at the moment.

Does IonQ deserve that status? It seems like a tough argument to make. It is unclear whether IonQ can sustain its growth and become a key player in the quantum computing market within the next three to five years. The business is also not profitable. In fact, it just issued $2 billion in new stock, which raises much-needed cash but dilutes shareholders in the process.

Such a high valuation is like an air pocket without the financials to justify it. If IonQ fails to meet these high expectations, the market could easily punish the stock quite harshly. Without a better risk-to-reward ratio here, IonQ doesn't look like a buy now.

Justin Pope has positions in Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, International Business Machines, IonQ, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.