Netflix in 2026: The Three Things Investors Should Watch Closely

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) enters 2026 with more momentum -- and more uncertainty -- than at any point in its history. The company continues to expand its ad business, sharpen its content strategy, and invest in new growth avenues. But it also faces the defining challenge of the year: a two-front battle to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming assets.

The next 12 months will determine whether Netflix strengthens its position as the world's dominant entertainment platform or gets pulled into a costly, distracting fight that delays its strategic ambitions. For investors, three areas stand out as the most important to watch in 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

The two-front battle for Warner Bros. -- regulatory and competitive

The Warner Bros. acquisition is more than a strategic swing. It is a full-scale test of Netflix's discipline, political navigation, and capital allocation.

On one front, Netflix must win regulatory approval. U.S. and European authorities already signaled deep concerns about market power, creative concentration, and consumer impact. President Donald Trump publicly stated that he plans to "be involved," making the process even more unpredictable. Regulators may require divestitures, impose exclusivity limits, or delay the deal. Any concession could change the economics of the acquisition.

On the second front, Netflix must contend with an aggressive rival. Paramount Skydance shocked the industry with a $108.4 billion counteroffer, roughly $25 billion higher than Netflix's bid. This isn't posturing. Paramount views Warner as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reset its strategic position, and a bidding war now looks increasingly likely.

For Netflix, this creates a difficult balance. Walk away too early, and the company loses the chance to acquire HBO, DC Comics, and a century of cultural assets that could elevate its competitive moat. Push too hard, and Netflix risks overpaying for an asset that takes years to integrate and digest. Either scenario will influence cash flow, debt levels, and capital allocation priorities for the remainder of the decade.

Investors must monitor regulatory filings, early remedy demands, and Paramount's next move. The winner of this two-front battle will shape the entertainment landscape for years.

The ad business must prove it can deliver real revenue

Netflix's ad business enters 2026 with scale, not proof. The company reports more than 190 million monthly active viewers on its ad-supported tier, thanks to a broader measurement approach that counts all household viewers. That gives Netflix reach comparable to major TV networks and large digital platforms.

But scale alone is not enough. Netflix must show that it can turn that reach into durable, high-margin revenue. Management promised to double ad revenue in 2025, but the company still doesn't break out ad revenues separately, leaving investors to infer performance from overall revenue growth and commentary.

Don't get me wrong, Netflix has huge advantages. It has premium content, global distribution, strong engagement, and an expanding programmatic infrastructure. These are characteristics that advertisers love. Still, Netflix must deliver what advertisers want -- real return on investment (ROI) on their advertising budgets. If it does, the monetization of its ad business will continue. If not, expectations may reset.

Investors should watch for clearer disclosures, average revenue per user (ARPU) momentum, and signs that Netflix can grow advertising through economic cycles in 2026.

Execution discipline across content, spending, and new verticals

While the Warner battle dominates headlines, Netflix still must run its core business with discipline. In 2025, the company delivered strong margin expansion and rising free cash flow. Maintaining that momentum in 2026 will not be easy.

Besides, Netflix continues to invest in live sports, expand its gaming ambitions, and launch Netflix House physical experiences. These moves create long-term optionality but increase operational complexity. Each initiative requires capital, talent, and management focus -- resources that the Warner pursuit will already stretch.

As content remains the backbone of Netflix's business, it must continue producing globally relevant hits while carefully managing spend. In the same spirit, the Warner acquisition could elevate its content library to a new height but only if the deal closes at the right price.

Going into 2026, investors should monitor operating margin trends, cash flow generation, and commentary on content investment efficiency. Any sign that Netflix is losing discipline could signal pressure ahead.

What does it mean for investors?

Netflix enters 2026 with an enormous opportunity and equally significant risk.

The company must win a complex, two-front battle for Warner Bros., prove its ad business can translate scale into revenue, and maintain operational discipline during a year of expansion.

If Netflix executes well, it could emerge in 2027 as the undisputed leader of the global entertainment industry. If it falters, the next year could become one of the most volatile periods in the company's history.

For investors, the message is clear: Watch the Warner battle, watch the ad business, and watch execution discipline. Those three areas will define Netflix's trajectory in 2026.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.