Pfizer Is Still Struggling to Replace Its COVID Revenue. Here's What We Could See From the Pharmaceutical Giant in 2026.

It now seems so long ago that Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) became the first company in the biopharmaceutical industry to generate over $100 billion in annual sales. The drugmaker achieved this milestone thanks to its dominance in the coronavirus vaccine market. However, this niche has since shrunk considerably -- and it could become even smaller next year. Regulators in the U.S. are making it harder for healthy individuals to get vaccinated.

Pfizer needs a way to replace this dwindling franchise, but so far, it has had little luck. Could the company make progress toward that goal next year? What should we expect from Pfizer in 2026?

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Another mRNA vaccine in the works

Pfizer's Comirnaty is an mRNA-based COVID vaccine and became the first such candidate to earn approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Pfizer has since developed a liking of mRNA vaccines and has been exploring the development of new ones in other areas. Pfizer has made significant progress with at least one of them, which is being developed to protect against influenza. Even though there are already approved flu vaccines, their efficacy typically fluctuates between around 40% to 60% in most years, and it can sometimes fall significantly lower than that.

For instance, in the 2014/2015 season, flu vaccines were only 19% effective, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. One reason for this is that scientists have to predict which strains of the flu will be most prevalent during an upcoming season and manufacture the vaccine accordingly. However, sometimes they get it very wrong, leading to subpar efficacy. mRNA vaccines are much faster to manufacture and can allow scientists to wait until closer to the season to start the process, potentially leading to increased efficacy.

In a phase 3 clinical trial, Pfizer's mRNA influenza candidate was associated with significantly fewer flu-like illnesses than one of the market leaders. Pfizer hasn't shared details on regulatory submissions for this candidate, but it is likely to move forward next year. If approved, it could eventually help the company boost its vaccine sales.

All eyes on these two candidates

Pfizer should also make significant clinical progress next year with two candidates: PF-4404 and MET-097i. The former is an investigational cancer medicine that looks highly promising. It has a dual mechanism of action -- it blocks the activity of two separate proteins that play a key role in the growth of certain cancers. This approach could make PF-4404 highly effective and broadly applicable across various forms of cancer.

Pfizer certainly thinks so. The company has said that it planned to initiate seven new clinical trials for the medicine (including some phase 3 studies) soon and, by the end of next year, it will seek to target some 10 new indications for PF-4044. Investors should expect regular clinical updates regarding PF-4404's progress throughout next year. This medicine, if approved, could be a key growth driver for the company for a long time.

Then there is MET-097i, an investigational weight loss medicine Pfizer got through its acquisition of Metsera. MET-097i successfully completed a pair of phase 2 studies recently. It demonstrated competitive weight loss potential, highly favorable tolerability, and the potential for once-monthly dosing, which would likely attract many patients.

As the anti-obesity market is on a rapid northbound path, MET-097i could be another important asset for Pfizer. The company could start phase 3 studies for this medicine in 2026.

A worthwhile value play

Pfizer will experience some patent cliffs next year. The company's immunosuppressant Xeljanz will lose exclusivity. Even though Xeljanz has not been much of a growth driver for years, the point is that between this issue and those related to its coronavirus vaccine business, investors shouldn't expect Pfizer's sales to grow at a good clip next year.

The company might do better on the bottom line. Pfizer has been engaged in cost-cutting efforts that have helped boost its net income, while a recent deal with the White House will exempt it from tariffs for three years.

Still, overall, Pfizer's financial results are likely to be relatively weak in 2026, much like they have been over the past three years. Through the first nine months of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 2% year over year to about $45 billion, while its earnings per share climbed 3% year over year to $2.56.

Even so, the stock is currently beaten down and could start to trend upward next year as it makes progress toward putting its recent challenges behind it -- that is, by developing newer potential blockbusters. Pfizer shares are trading at 8.7 times forward earnings, well below the healthcare sector average of 18.3.

The stock appears attractive at current levels for investors willing to stay the course, especially when considering its generous 6.6% forward dividend yield.

Prosper Junior Bakiny has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Pfizer. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.