Why Is Everyone Talking About Fair Isaac Stock?

Key Points

• The stock price has fallen by 40%.

• There are long-term opportunities ahead, but investors should not ignore the risks.

• 10 stocks we like better than Fair Isaac ›

Fair Isaac (NYSE: FICO) the companymay not be a household name, but nearly everyone knows its core product: The FICO score. From credit scores to fraud detection, the company has developed one of the most robust and profitable business models in the financial technology sector. That makes the stock a fascinating case study -- and lately, it's been moving in ways that have caught investors' attention.

Here's a closer look at what the company does, where the opportunities and risks lie, and why its stock has become such a hot topic.

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What does Fair Isaac actually do?

Fair Isaac is best known for creating the FICO score, the three-digit number used by banks, lenders, and credit card companies to evaluate borrowers. Roughly 90% of top U.S. lenders use FICO scores, making it the de facto standard in credit decisioning. That dominance has provided the company with a long-term, recurring revenue stream.

But Fair Isaac is much more than just scores. The company also sells decision management software, which helps banks, insurers, and retailers automate risk assessment, detect fraud, and make faster, data-driven lending decisions. This software-as-a-service (SaaS) model has turned into a durable profit engine.

The business has two segments:

• Scores (the FICO credit scores business) is a high-margin, recurring business. This segment accounted for 60% of revenue in Q3 2025 (quarter ended June 30, 2025).
• Software, which focuses on risk, compliance, and fraud prevention, accounted for the remaining 40% of the company's revenue.

Together, these create a solid moat, thanks to the near-universal adoption of FICO scores and the sticky nature of enterprise software embedded into clients' core systems.

Stock fluctuations

Fair Isaac's stock has been anything but boring. Over the past year, it soared to all-time highs before falling back roughly 40% from its peak, despite continued earnings growth. For instance, non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted earnings per share (EPS) and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) grew by 37% and 32%, respectively, in the fiscal third quarter, ended June 30.

That volatility has caught the market's eye -- especially since the company's fundamentals remain strong. The pullback reflects investor concerns about high valuation and macro uncertainty more than any fundamental weakness in the business. For perspective, the stock (as of the time of writing) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62 times its earnings per share.

In other words, investors have started to pay attention to the stock since fundamentals remain strong despite the recent sell-off, suggesting that the stock is gradually moving toward a more affordable valuation level.

Opportunities and risks

The long-term opportunity for Fair Isaac is straightforward. One thing is that demand for its FICO scores will always be there, as long as lending activities continue. Additionally, the company has been expanding into areas such as FICO Marketplace, which connects consumers directly with lenders, thereby creating new distribution channels for its scoring model.

Beyond that, the company is benefiting from long-term growth in financial automation, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven fraud detection, and digital credit decisioning. As banks and lenders modernize their technology stacks, Fair Isaac's software becomes increasingly difficult to replace.

Another tailwind is that financial institutions are under pressure to manage risk more efficiently, especially in a rising-rate environment. That plays directly into Fair Isaac's strengths in analytics and predictive modeling.

But risks remain. The company's reliance on large financial institutions makes it dependent on the cyclical nature of bank IT budgets. Regulatory scrutiny could also challenge the dominance of FICO scores if alternatives become available. Competition is also a factor, with firms like VantageScore trying to capture market share. And then there's valuation: After a huge run-up, the stock still trades at a premium multiple, leaving less room for error.

What does it mean for investors?

Fair Isaac is a powerful business sitting at the heart of global credit markets. With the near-universal adoption of its FICO scores, a growing software segment, and expanding use cases in fraud detection and risk management, the company has numerous levers for long-term growth.

Investors are discussing Fair Isaac now because its stock has become volatile, while the fundamentals remain strong. For those who believe in its moat and growth story, that volatility could be an opportunity.

All in all, it's worth keeping the stock on your radar.

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Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Fair Isaac. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.