Prediction: XRP Could See Its Price Rising Again by Oct. 18

Key Points

• In October, the SEC might approve a handful of new spot XRP ETFs.

• The arrival of ETFs will likely lead to an influx of billions of dollars of new money into XRP.

• If SEC approval happens as planned, the maximum upside potential for XRP could be a price of $5.

• 10 stocks we like better than XRP ›

After hitting a new 52-week high of $3.65 in July, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has since fallen below the $3 level. That's obviously of major concern to crypto investors, who were fully expecting XRP to soar throughout the rest of the year.

But all is not lost. There's still one big catalyst on the horizon that could set a fire under the price of XRP, and it's coming on Oct. 18. Let's take a closer look.

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Arrival of new spot ETFs

The catalyst that everyone is talking about right now is the potential approval of new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for XRP. Currently, only Bitcoin and Ethereum have spot ETFs, but XRP is now the odds-on favorite to be the next major cryptocurrency to get them. If that happens, XRP could be on the cusp of going fully mainstream.

Right now, Bloomberg says there's a 95% chance that these spot XRP ETFs will start trading this year. And prediction markets appear to concur. Traders on Polymarket currently give these spot ETFs an 87% chance of being approved later this year.

Image source: Getty Images.

The best part about all this is that we know the exact date when ETF approval is going to happen: Oct. 18. That's when the Securities and Exchange (SEC) is set to begin ruling on new spot XRP ETFs that have already been submitted for issuance by top investment firms, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton.

Earlier in August, the SEC punted on a decision, and pushed the deadline back to October. While the decision was disappointing, it makes it easier for the SEC to approve all the XRP ETFs at one time. This is the same way it was done with the spot Bitcoin ETFs. All told, there are eight different spot XRP ETFs that could be approved between Oct. 18 and 25.

How big of an impact will the new ETFs have?

Once the new spot XRP ETFs start trading, they could have a significant impact on the price of XRP. That's because billions of dollars could start to flow into XRP from both retail and institutional investors, thereby helping to push up its price. Estimates from earlier this year from JPMorgan Chase suggested that as much as $8 billion might flow into XRP.

The same phenomenon occurred with Bitcoin, when the new spot Bitcoin ETFs started trading last January. The price of Bitcoin immediately soared by a head-spinning 160% as money poured into Bitcoin. If history repeats (which it often does), then XRP could soar from a price of less than $3 to a price of as much as $5. That's the maximum upside scenario, and it requires XRP to follow the same sort of price trajectory as Bitcoin.

The only problem, of course, is that the ETF approval process is likely already baked into the price of XRP, at least partially. For more than eight months, traders have been expecting this approval, so there is not going to be any "surprise" news on Oct. 18 when, in fact, this happens. If markets are truly efficient, then the price impact in October might be less than many are expecting.

In a worst-case scenario, hype around the new ETFs might lead to a case of buy the rumor, sell the news. In other words, traders will bid up the price of XRP heading into October, and then immediately take profits as soon as the first SEC approval is signed, sealed, and delivered.

No guarantees with XRP

Just remember: There are no guarantees with XRP. If there is one cryptocurrency that has consistently overpromised and underdelivered in 2025, it's XRP. Yes, XRP is still up 23% for the year, but much of those gains occurred early in the year, when there was still a significant amount of pro-crypto euphoria surrounding the new Trump administration.

But a lot has changed since then and now. Tariffs, for example, now loom large on the horizon. And broader macroeconomic weakness within the U.S. economy might slam the brakes on any incipient year-end XRP rally.

Still, XRP is exactly the type of cryptocurrency that's capable of soaring within a relatively short period of time. In the period from November 2024 to January 2025, for example, XRP soared by an eye-popping 580%. So we know the upside potential is there.

As a result, I've already circled Oct. 18 on my calendar. If the price of XRP is going to start moving north again this year, that's when it's going to happen.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, JPMorgan Chase, and XRP. The Motley Fool recommends WisdomTree. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.