Oracle Q1 FY2026 Earnings: Can Cloud and AI Drive the Next Stock Rally?

TradingKey - Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) will report Q1 FY2026 results after the close on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, with the webcasted conference call scheduled for 4:00 PM CT / 5:00 PM ET, making the print a fresh read-through on enterprise cloud, AI infrastructure demand, and multicloud adoption into FY2026. With shares up 34% YTD on AI and cloud momentum, the quarter will test whether Oracle can convert its expanded backlog and capacity additions into sustained revenue, EPS, and OCI consumption acceleration.

Source: TradingKey

Market Forecast 

Source: Oracle, Nsadaq, TradingKey

Key Investor Focus Areas

Cloud infrastructure and AI: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is Oracle’s infrastructure�as�a�service platform for compute, storage, networking, databases, and GPUs that powers enterprise and AI workloads. Q1 OCI growth is expected to be around the mid�40% range as newly added capacity comes online, set against management’s FY2026 goals of over 70% OCI growth and over 40% total cloud growth if supply converts into sustained consumption; NVIDIA Blackwell rollouts and native NVIDIA AI Enterprise/NIM services in OCI are expected to support training and inference at scale, while GPU supply and data center readiness will determine how quickly demand converts to reported revenue and margins.

Backlog and RPO: RPO is expected to step higher from the Q4 FY2025 base of $138B as AI infrastructure and multicloud activity continue; quarterly results will hinge on when large agreements activate and how fast workloads ramp, which drives revenue recognition and operating leverage.

Multicloud and partnerships: Triple�digit multicloud database growth and 23 live multicloud data centers, with additional sites progressing across AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, are expected to extend cross�cloud reach and support share gains as enterprises standardize database services; pass�through to reported results depends on converting in�flight sites and deepening partner attach.

Margins, Cash, and Capex: Non�GAAP operating margin is expected around the mid�40s percent near term as cloud mix scales against elevated AI infrastructure investment; FY2026 capex is expected to exceed $25B for revenue�generating data center equipment, supporting capacity adds tied to AI and cloud demand. Free cash flow deployment remains focused on capacity expansion, share repurchases, and debt management, while pricing, promotional activity, and the phasing of new capacity relative to consumption are set to shape near�term margin contours.

Recent Events and Regulatory Trends 

AI partnerships: Oracle and NVIDIA announced native availability of NVIDIA AI Enterprise tools and NIM microservices on OCI, alongside Blackwell GPU deployments to power reasoning models and AI agents; timing of monetization depends on GPU supply and workload ramp.

Capacity ramp: OCI is rolling out GB200�class NVL72 systems and building large Blackwell clusters, adding headroom for fiscal 2026 cloud acceleration as new regions and availability domains reach steady consumption.

Regulatory: Tightening data sovereignty and AI governance standards highlight the need for distributed/sovereign cloud options, embedded policy controls, and auditability in OCI’s AI stack, particularly in regulated sectors where compliance can lengthen activation timelines.

Conclusion

Oracle’s Q1 FY2026 is expected to meet consensus with potential upside. Momentum hinges on three signals: evidence that new capacity is translating into steady OCI usage, RPO moving higher with clearer activation timing, and margins holding despite higher AI capex. If guidance and commentary confirm these positives, the FY2026 acceleration case strengthens, with shares potentially moving toward $250. If supply constraints, activation delays, softer cloud momentum, or margin pressure surface, a 5–10% pullback is plausible and a cautious stance is warranted.

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