Here's What to Expect From Bitcoin This September

Key Points

• Bitcoin tends to decline in September.

• It may or may not do that this time around.

• Having and using a long-term investment plan is the best way forward.

• 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) seasonal rhythm is one of those patterns investors love to argue over, but the historical performance data don't actually leave much to quibble about. On average, September has been a month when the coin tends to go down.

But could things be different this time? How bad could it be? And what should investors do? Let's answer each of these questions in detail.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Image source: Getty Images.

September is usually a down month

Since 2013, on average, Bitcoin has declined by between 3% and 5% in September. Of the 15 Septembers since the coin's launch, 10 have closed the month in the red. And the worst of the prior 10 Septembers was in 2014, when Bitcoin lost 20% of its value.

So right off the bat, it looks more likely for the coin to decline this month than for it to rise.

Of course, there are exceptions to the trend. Bitcoin logged green Septembers in 2023 and 2024, with the latter up more than 7% -- but that performance is its second-best ever for the month. There's no rule that says the coin needs to repeat its historical behavior. In other words, treat this pattern as a piece of context for what to expect, not a forecast.

The more important part of the coin's seasonality is what tends to follow.

Historically, October and November have been two of Bitcoin's best months. Since 2010, October's average gain is near 29%, and November's is even better, at near 38%. Thus, most of Q4 tends to be quite bullish, though once again, there is no guarantee that the price will obey its historical trend.

Furthermore, Bitcoin is experiencing a cornucopia of bullish catalysts at the moment, which could potentially make the entire rest of the year into party time for holders.

Between dedicated crypto treasury companies and corporate treasuries buying it, governments opting to hoard it, massive inflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a general widespread acceptance of the coin as an investable asset, there's a tremendous amount of buying pressure right now. At the same time, its newly created supply is dramatically outmatched by routine buying activity -- and this is the loosest its supply will ever be.

Be prepared to take advantage of any opportunity

Trying to catch a seasonal dip without any other investment planning is essentially trying to time the market. That's a game most investors are likely to lose most of the time, especially if they're holding cash on the sidelines and waiting for the perfect opportunity.

The best way to approach the possibility of September seasonality is to use a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy, where you consistently buy small quantities of Bitcoin at regular intervals over time. That way, if there's a dip worth buying in September or any other month, you'll automatically be taking advantage of it. You'll also be buying the coin when its price is skyrocketing, but over the long term, the asset's growth will provide you with a return.

The other way to be prepared for Bitcoin's seasonality is to carefully calibrate your exposure and ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified. Especially if you're a bit risk-averse, you should only allocate between 1% and 5% of your portfolio to Bitcoin. Keeping Bitcoin to a defined slice of your portfolio prevents a single asset from dictating your outcomes in a choppy month, and it'll help to keep you sane if it loses more value than anticipated.

Once you have a DCA running and you're confident in your target allocation, it's permissible to use some of your extra capital to load up on a little more Bitcoin than usual if there's a dip in September. But for most investors, just running the DCA will be sufficient, and also a lower-hassle process.

In closing, there's no need to be afraid of September as a Bitcoin holder. You don't need to predict which version of history will emerge this year to have a solid all-weather investment plan. Decide your allocation, automate your buys, and let time do the legwork to increase the value of your portfolio.

Should you invest $1,000 in Bitcoin right now?

Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $661,268!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,045,818!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,047% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 184% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of August 25, 2025

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.