“EV King” Losing Steam? BYD To Cut 2025 Sales Target by 16%, Slowest Growth Since 2020

TradingKey - According to Reuters, BYD (1211.HK), the global electric vehicle giant, has held multiple internal discussions in recent months about lowering its 2025 EV sales target, potentially cutting the full-year goal from the previously stated 5.5 million units to 4.6 million, a 16% reduction.

Sources said the 4.6 million figure has already been circulated within the company in August and shared with suppliers to discuss planning and adjustments, though the number could still change based on market dynamics.

This potential new target implies a 16% year-on-year sales growth, the slowest since 2020, when sales fell 7%. It also falls below recent forecasts from Deutsche Bank (4.7 million) and Morningstar (4.8 million).

BYD has not responded to the report. Analysts suggest that the slowdown in growth may stem from intensifying competition from domestic rivals such as Xiaomi, Geely, Leapmotor, and XPeng, as well as deflationary pressures in China’s broader macroeconomic environment.

In fact, recent data from BYD already shows signs of weakness. In August, BYD’s new energy vehicle sales rose just 0.15% YoY, while competitors posted strong gains:

• Geely New Energy: +95.20%
• SAIC New Energy: +49.89%
• Leapmotor: +88.31%
• AITO (Harmony Intelligent Mobility): +32.29%
• XPeng: +168.66%

As of the end of July, BYD had sold only 2.49 million vehicles, less than half of its original 5.5 million annual target. In contrast, Geely announced last month it would raise its 2025 sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million vehicles.

While BYD’s Q2 revenue grew 14% YoY, its gross margin shrank sharply to 16.3%, the lowest since Q2 2022.

Morgan Stanley noted that strong overseas sales growth, favorable currency effects, and expanding production scale — factors that should have boosted profits — did not materialize in the Q2 results.

Morgan Stanley attributed the margin pressure to dealer rebates, higher manufacturing costs from advanced driver-assistance systems, and fierce domestic price competition in the auto sector.

On September 4, BYD A-shares (002594) closed down 2.99%, down 8.82% for the month; BYD H-shares fell 3.24%, down 8.65% month-to-date.