Is an XRP Breakout on the Horizon?

Key Points

• International money transfers desperately need modernization, giving RippleNet a massive long-term opportunity.

• At the same time, XRP's $168 billion market cap looks expensive when RippleNet only generates a tiny trickle of annual fees.

• XRP needs a price correction before it becomes an attractive investment opportunity again.

• 10 stocks we like better than XRP ›

The XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) cryptocurrency, formerly known as Ripple, has been volatile in 2025. Its price per coin has swung as high as $3.56 and as low as $1.79 this year. The XRP chart currently sits at $2.97, just above the midpoint of that wild range.

This volatility follows on the heels of skyrocketing gains in 2024. On the afternoon of Aug. 29, XRP was up 421% in 52 weeks.

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Does XRP have room to go higher before the end of 2025, or is it more likely to see a price cut by the end of the year? Let's think about that.

XRP's bull and bear cases

Some crypto market watchers expect XRP to soar in the near future. Bullish catalysts include the XRP-based RLUSD (CRYPTO: RLUSD) stablecoin, the pending approval of the first XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the general trend of higher prices in recent months.

The crypto-friendly Trump administration plays a part in this rosy view, and for good reason: XRP would probably still be wrestling with its old Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit if November's presidential election had gone the other way.

Others see a precarious pricing situation, since XRP's $168 billion market cap isn't supported by a booming business. On Thursday, for instance, the RippleNet international payment system settled 674,000 transactions worth a total of $713 million. Not too shabby, at least when you extrapolate these figures to a dollar volume of roughly $260 billion and 260 million payments per year.

But RippleNet only collected 691 XRP tokens in fees, worth a total of approximately $1,900. That's just above $706,000 per year. That's...not a lot.

I'm sure the business collects revenue in other ways, but Ripple is still a private organization and tight-lipped about its finances. Based on the ultra-modest XRP fees, however, the crypto's $168 billion market cap doesn't look so cheap anymore.

Image source: Getty Images.

The real-world problem XRP is trying to solve

I see a bright long-term future for RippleNet and XRP. Border-crossing payments are a very big business, and the solutions you see in traditional banking systems are often pricey and slow. If there ever were a financial service in need of a modern digital overhaul, international payments would be at the top of my list.

I say this as a natural-born Swede who relocated to America nearly 30 years ago. Sending money to friends and family in the land of the Vikings, Volvos, and IKEA was never quick or easy.

Getting paid for writing and translation services abroad is also costly and surprisingly slow. This is particularly shocking since Sweden has pretty much done away with old-school coins and bills already. Most retailers strongly prefer electronic payment options like credit cards, PayPal, the local Swish e-banking service, or pay-later options such as Stockholm-based Klarna.

Bureaucracy, paperwork, and high fees for international payments just don't make sense against that smooth, swift, and digital framework. Yet, that's the situation. Modern alternatives like XRP could clean this mess up over time.

But wait, there's a catch (or four)

But that's the issue: Big changes take a lot of time. XRP might handle trillion-dollar payment volumes someday, possibly generating significant revenue along the way. But that's a long-term vision with many potential pitfalls. For example:

• Other cryptocurrencies could steal XRP's thunder. Stablecoins and central bank digital currencies are particularly likely challengers.
• Old-school banks could get their digital ducks in a row, collaborating to develop their own digital ledger system for international trade.
• Regulations on border-crossing money movements could harmonize on a global level. The intricacies of working with unique regulations in nearly 200 countries are a large part of RippleNet's first-mover advantage, so a unified worldwide rulebook would be a game-changer.
• The RippleNet service and XRP cryptocurrency are fast, but can they handle a true case of global success with billions of potential users?

So, it's far from a risk-free process. Sure, XRP could become a huge winner in the long haul, but it could also stumble and fall long before becoming a household name everywhere.

The incredibly generous price premium you see today is a bit much. If anything, XRP could use a quick price correction to account for a plethora of business risks.

I don't expect that correction to happen in 2025, for the same change-averse reasons that are slowing down XRP's financial victory march. Volatility will continue, and the crypto's story will be told for years to come. A small XRP investment could be appropriate at this point, keeping you connected to its developing business case, but I would not recommend big bets on it now.

Ask again if that hair-raising price correction shows up. I might be an XRP buyer again at that point.

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Anders Bylund has positions in XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends PayPal and XRP. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2027 $42.50 calls on PayPal and short September 2025 $77.50 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.