Prediction: XRP Will Hit $4 by Oct. 1

Key Points

• XRP has already tested the $4 price level this summer, and could finally hit $4 by Oct. 1.

• The SEC is scheduled to rule on a handful of spot XRP ETF applications in mid-October.

• If the spot XRP ETFs are approved as anticipated, billions of dollars in new institutional money may flow into XRP.

• 10 stocks we like better than XRP ›

In mid-July, amid all the hoopla about "Crypto Week" in Washington, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) soared to a 52-week high of $3.65. That was mere pennies away from the cryptocurrency's all-time high of $3.84. For many crypto investors, then, it's not "if" but "when" XRP blows past the $4 mark.

Most likely, XRP will hit $4 by Oct. 1. That's based on an important event coming up in October that could change the game for the way crypto investors think about XRP. Here's what you need to know.

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Arrival of the spot XRP ETFs

Right now, the only two cryptocurrencies that have spot ETFs are Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). But that probably is going to change soon.

A number of investment firms have already submitted spot XRP ETF applications, and the Securities and Exchange Commission is set to rule on all of them in the period between Oct. 18 and Oct. 25. All of this is publicly available information and can easily be found online. So, for example, Grayscale has a spot XRP ETF decision coming up on Oct. 18, 21Shares has a spot XRP ETF decision coming up on Oct. 19, and Bitwise has a spot XRP ETF decision coming up on Oct. 20.

Image source: Getty Images.

If the SEC follows the same playbook that it did with the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it will do a bulk approval. Either all of the ETFs will get approved at the same time, or all of them will be pushed back for further review.

The current chatter online is that the SEC will actually speed up its timeline. It might approve these ETFs in September, not October, due to a recent rule change.

Why the spot XRP ETFs matter

XRP is now a $180 billion digital asset, ranking as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. XRP trails only Ethereum ($440 billion) and Bitcoin ($2.3 trillion) in size, and now accounts for roughly 5% of the total value of the crypto market.

This size and heft makes XRP very attractive to institutional investors, who will likely be the biggest buyers of the new spot XRP ETFs. On diversification grounds alone, it's worth rounding out a Bitcoin-heavy crypto portfolio with other digital assets such as XRP.

According to analysis from JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) earlier this year, as much as $8 billion might flow into XRP by the end of 2025 as a result of the new ETFs. This steady buying should help to push up the price of XRP during the coming months. As we get closer to the first spot XRP ETF approval date (Oct. 18), buying pressure is likely to build.

Currently, there are other XRP ETFs trading in the marketplace, but they are not spot ETFs based on current market prices. Instead, they use a mix of financial derivatives to create a synthetic XRP position. Reportedly, demand for these ETFs has been very strong, with investors drawn to the upside potential of XRP.

So it's easy to see this same bullish investor demand carrying over to the new spot ETFs. The new ETFs will offer superior price tracking of XRP, due to their ability to buy XRP directly in the spot crypto market. Moreover, they won't rely on financial derivatives, and should carry less risk.

Spot XRP or spot XRP ETF?

While new spot XRP ETFs can play a very important role for institutional investors, I'm not as convinced of their appeal for individual investors. For example, if you have an account at a cryptocurrency exchange such as Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), why not just buy spot XRP directly? And if you have an account at a brokerage that enables crypto trading, the same argument holds: Why not just buy spot XRP?

Yes, with an ETF, you will get 1-to-1 exposure to the price action of XRP, but you won't own the underlying asset. Instead, you will own shares in a fund that owns XRP. For some investors, that might not matter. But, as for me, I'd rather hold XRP directly.

Moreover, it's worth pointing out that BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) -- the leader when it comes to spot crypto ETFs -- currently has no plans to offer a spot XRP ETF. That's just one more reason for me to buy XRP directly. If all goes according to plan, XRP will hit the $4 mark just as we roll into the final quarter of the year.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, JPMorgan Chase, and XRP. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.