DXY: FOMC minutes, core PCE this week – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) rebounded from lower grounds, owing to upside surprise from US consumer confidence and progress with EU-US trade talks. DXY was last at 99.56 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias

"Elsewhere chatters of month-end USD buy flows may also have contributed to the USD rebound. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias while RSI rose. Consolidation, with risks to the upside is not ruled out in the near term. Resistance at 100.1 (21 DMA), 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough). Next support at 97.90 (2025 low), 97.40 levels."

"Today’s focus on Richmond fed manufacturing, FOMC minutes (2am tomorrow). Policy unpredictability surrounding Trump’s tariffs and ballooning debt and deficits are some of the US-centric risks that may continue to undermine confidence in the USD."

"That said, we remain cautious on how month-end flows may distort price action as well as core PCE data (Friday). The risk of a firmer than expected print may lead to a reduction in USD short position (i.e. USD strength)."