Dollar sinks for the week despite strong U.S. data

Oil prices ended the week almost flat after days of pressure from rising supply concerns and weak economic data out of the U.S. and China.

On Friday, traders pulled back further as signs of slowing momentum grew louder. Brent crude dropped 74 cents, settling at $68.44, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 87 cents to close at $65.16.

Those levels haven’t been seen since early July and late June, respectively. For the week, Brent lost around 1% and WTI saw a 3% decline, with traders focused on oversupply and weak demand signals.

The stall in prices came as investors tried to balance the negative weight of slowing industrial activity with the possibility that U.S. trade deals could help revive global growth and eventually lift oil demand.

But none of that helped much in the short term. Both Brent and WTI ended the week deep in the red, as traders moved cautiously around incoming policy decisions and new political threats from Washington.

Dollar sinks for the week despite strong U.S. data

The U.S. dollar climbed slightly on Friday, helped by better-than-expected economic numbers, but still booked its worst weekly drop in a month. Economic figures released during the week showed that new orders for key capital goods unexpectedly fell in June, while shipments picked up modestly. The mixed signals pointed to a sharp slowdown in business investment, especially in equipment, during the second quarter.

Even with the strong close on Friday, where the dollar index rose 0.3%, it wasn’t enough to erase the earlier losses. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, stood at 97.45, down 0.75% for the week. That came as investors braced for more tariff talks and back-to-back central bank meetings next week.

Sterling slipped as well after data from the U.K. showed that retail sales came in lower than expected, piling on more pressure. Over in Japan, the yen weakened following softer inflation data out of Tokyo, and the dollar rose 0.5% to 147.66 yen on Friday. Still, the greenback was down 0.7% against the yen over the week.

Trump pressures Fed and floats tariffs on Russian oil buyers

Political heat increased after U.S. President Donald Trump repeated his demand for lower interest rates during a press event on Thursday, going head-to-head once again with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump and Powell have had a long public clash over rate policy, but Trump told reporters this week that he does not plan to fire Powell, despite suggesting that possibility in the past.

While both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to leave rates unchanged in their meetings next week, traders are watching the post-meeting statements to figure out if any future action is on the table. Politics is playing a big role in both cases.

In Japan, the recent upper house election loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition has made life more complicated for policymakers, even as a newly signed U.S.-Japan trade deal gives the BOJ more flexibility to keep rates steady.

The week also saw a new tariff threat from Trump. He said earlier this month that his administration would impose 100% tariffs on any country that continues to import Russian oil, unless Moscow agrees to a major peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days.

That deadline expires in early September, and market watchers doubt Trump will follow through. The move would likely raise prices and feed into inflation, something the White House is trying to avoid.

Trump had tried a similar tactic with Venezuelan oil, but it failed to block purchases, especially from China. The threat did little to impact global prices. Speaking two days after floating the Russian sanctions, Trump told reporters, “$64 a barrel is a great level. We’re trying to bring it down just a bit more. That’s one of the reasons that inflation’s in check.”

As the week wrapped up, traders were left juggling rising supply, weak macro signals, and political interference. The oil market is now staring down another week of uncertainty, with central banks, tariff developments, and Trump’s next moves all likely to determine whether prices will rebound—or keep falling.

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