CME futures activity points to a higher probability for a Solana ETF, with seven funds under review

The market is positioning itself for an imminent launch of a Solana ETF. Futures activity on CME is the busiest to date, showing readiness for mainstream trading. 

Despite the recent slide of SOL prices, the mainstream markets are showing signs of preparing for an imminent launch of a Solana ETF. After the latest round of S-1 form updates, Solana futures volumes spiked on the CME, reaching their highest level since the launch in March. Analysts also suggested the higher volumes may be indicating a readiness for ETF approval in the coming months. 

A total of seven ETF may be approved soon, of which one will include SOL staking for an innovative product combining mainstream investment with crypto-native income. 

The CME futures show a mix of smaller traders and institutional involvement. In the past few days, the CME noted institutions were increasing their share of trading, making up 10% of blocks traded in May. 

Since the launch, 106K contracts were traded, with a notional volume of $3B. While the CME market remains smaller compared to overall SOL activity, the products show awareness and mainstream interest. The exchange also posted peak daily open interest as of July 17, retaining the trend of growing activity.

SOL market shows signs of increased ETF probability

During the ETF preview period, SOL showed price weakness after dipping under $130. SOL is also mostly pressured by futures markets speculation and attempts to liquidate long positions. However, mainstream investors are positioning themselves with more readiness for ETF trading. 

One of the recent signs of readiness was the listing of VanEck’s VSOL ticker with the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). The listing does not mean trading launch is imminent, but in the past, VanEck’s Ethereum ETF took six weeks to launch after receiving a ticker. 

The CME futures data matches Bloomberg’s recent chart of ETF probabilities, putting Solana as the most probable ETF to launch next. In June, the Polymarket prediction pair also raised the probability of a Solana ETF to 91%, with a 50% chance of launching by the end of July.

Searches for SOL ETF and ‘Solana ETF’ also picked up in June, showing increasing mainstream interest.

The launch of a bigger, high-profile Solana ETF may boost interest in the asset. For now, the existing GSOL ETP by Grayscale has risen to a higher baseline activity, trading on par with the crypto market. GSOL traded at $10.80 with 0.07 SOL per share, the equivalent of around $138 per SOL. 

ETF approval may bring up to 50% repricing

SOL has shown it has the potential to rally back to the $180-$200 range. Currently, influencers and crypto-native traders are positioning themselves for a ‘Solana summer’, with increased on-chain activity, token launches, and two successful quarters of fee generation. 

An ETF approval may re-spark demand and exuberance for SOL, leading to another repricing. In the short term, SOL moved back closer to the $140 range, potentially repricing to a higher level. 

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