XRP ETF At 83% Approval Odds—Is The SEC Losing Grip?

Investor optimism for a spot XRP ETF has climbed sharply. Based on Polymarket’s data, the odds of a green light sit at 83%. That figure comes even as the US Securities and Exchange Commission keeps pushing decisions back. Some industry watchers say the regulator simply uses its full review window.

Analyst Predictions And Timeline

According to Bloomberg’s James Seyffart, the SEC often takes the full 240 days to weigh 19b-4 filings. He pointed out that the agency asked for an extra 45 days on May 20 to rule on Bitwise’s Ether staking change, moving the deadline to May 22.

Based on his posts on X, almost all spot ETF bids now face final due dates in October. That makes any early summer approvals highly unlikely.

Spot Versus Futures Products

On May 19, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rolled out an XRP futures contract for the first time. A few days later, Volatility Shares listed the XRPI futures ETF on Nasdaq. Then Tectrium added a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF for those seeking more leverage.

These products let traders bet on XRP’s future price in a regulated setting. They are not the same as a spot ETF, but they signal growing interest among big investors.

Based on reports, Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, spoke on the company’s podcast about why ETFs matter. He said ETFs let Wall Street buy crypto without wrestling with exchanges or private wallets.

He highlighted that the Bitcoin ETF hit $1 billion in assets faster than any other, and then reached $10 billion on record. That track record, he argued, paves the way for similar products tied to XRP.

According to SEC filings and industry chatter, delays are normal. The commission has already postponed decisions on Grayscale’s XRP tracking fund and a Solana ETF.

Analysts warn that odds in prediction markets can shift wildly. An 83% chance today could drop if the SEC raises new questions or requests another comment period. Investors should keep an eye on the calendar as October approaches.

The buzz around an XRP spot ETF reflects real excitement, but history shows regulators move slowly. Futures ETFs like XRPI offer one path into XRP’s market, yet they come with quirks like contango and premium swings. For now, institutions and retail traders alike will watch the SEC’s deadlines with keen interest—and maybe a bit of patience.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView