25,000 Bitcoin options are set to expire today, threatening BTC’s $110K phase

Bitcoin (BTC) has been changing hands above $110,000 since the early hours of Thursday. Yet, analysts are predicting that the expiration of over 25,000 BTC options contracts on the derivatives market today, a notional value of approximately $2.81 billion, could drag the top coin by market cap down to the recently breached all-time high level. 

According to data from Greeks.Live, the put/call ratio for this expiration stood at 1.22, a slightly bearish short-term sentiment among traders. The max pain point, or the price at which option holders would incur the most losses, sits well below current levels at $104,000. 

【5月23日期权交割数据】
2.5万张BTC期权到期，Put Call Ratio为1.22，最大痛点104000美元，名义价值28.1亿美元。
20.2万张ETH期权到期，Put Call Ratio为1.26，最大痛点2450美元，名义价值5.7亿美元。… pic.twitter.com/X0qix0UeMP

— Adam@Greeks.live (@BTC__options) May 23, 2025

Bitcoin is now trading near $110,900, above both max pain and technical resistance zones. The market is showing signs of bull tailwinds, beyond short-term hedging strategies. Moreover, the expiration event has not triggered notable market volatility, thanks to low relative exposure and long-term conviction across investors of all sizes.

Institutional holdings mull BTC price growth in the coming months

May 23’s expiry involved a notable volume of contracts, but it only accounted for 7.63% of total BTC open interest, meaning the broader derivatives market is largely unaffected. 

Most of the open interest is concentrated in later expiries, with June 27 accounting for 30.38% and May 30 holding 26.03%. Institutional traders could be looking at taking more positions and increasing their market participation in June.

“The low exposure to today’s expiry likely capped potential volatility. Instead, traders are building exposure toward more pivotal dates, with open interest and implied volatility rising around June’s contracts,” explained derivatives analyst Peter Yan of AlphaOptions.

The overall put/call ratio for all BTC options, standing at 0.61, places Bitcoin at a longer-term bullish tilt. High-strike call options such as the $200,000 and $300,000 levels for June are among the most crowded, with $420 million and $620 million in notional value, respectively. 

More accumulation across wallet sizes

Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score hit 1.0, which means the market is under sustained buying pressure from both ends, whales and small crypto holders.

Glassnode analysts observed that wallets holding over 10,000 BTC started the accumulation wave earlier in May when BTC started exhibiting signs of a positive price correction north of $95,000. 

“It’s similar to the behavior we saw back in January, right before Bitcoin’s last parabolic leg,” Glassnode noted in a research post. “What’s different this time is that accumulation is occurring at all-time highs, not during a dip. That’s historically very rare.”

If Bitcoin sustains its footing above $110,000 and breaks through the $112,000 resistance, the path toward new highs remains wide open. That said, strong spot buying, coupled with aggressive accumulation, favors the bulls.

Ethereum lags behind as options skew bearish

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) has struggled to keep up with Bitcoin’s momentum. 202,000 ETH options are also expiring today, representing over $543 million in notional value. 

Per data from analytics platform Deribit, the market is moving cautiously towards buying ETH, with a higher put/call ratio of 1.26 and a max pain point at $2,450, well below its current spot price of $2,669.

Up 2.6% in the last week, Ether is testing the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern near $2,680. The pattern is deemed as a bearish reversal signal when it appears after an extended uptrend, but long-term holders are hoping for a trend reversal that could push the price back up to $3,000.

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