Bitcoin Ratio Nears Key Threshold: 3 Scenarios That Could Define The Next Move

Bitcoin has finally broken above the $96,000 mark, signaling a potential shift in market structure after weeks of consolidation and selling pressure. This breakout gives bulls the upper hand as momentum builds across the board, with renewed optimism that BTC could reclaim the $100K milestone in the near term. The market’s tone has shifted, and the breakout above $96K could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase.

Top crypto analyst Axel Adler shared a key on-chain metric suggesting that Bitcoin is entering the early stages of a new rally. According to Adler, the on-chain momentum ratio now sits around 0.8 (or 80%). Historically, this zone has preceded strong upward trends in previous cycles.

While global macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical tensions continue to cast uncertainty over financial markets, Bitcoin’s on-chain strength hints at a growing appetite for risk among investors. If bulls can sustain this breakout and push toward $100K, it would confirm a broader market shift and potentially lead to a strong Q2 rally across the crypto sector.

Bitcoin Eyes Bullish Continuation As Momentum Builds

Bitcoin is regaining strength after months of selling pressure, with bulls now attempting to reclaim control. Since the breakout above the $90K level, momentum has gradually shifted, and Axel Adler suggests the market is entering what he calls the “start” rally zone. This is based on the on-chain Ratio indicator, which currently sits around 0.8—or 80%—a historically significant level that often precedes major market moves.

If this ratio breaks above 1.0 and holds, it would likely confirm a strong bullish impulse. In this optimistic scenario, key metrics like NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) would signal an expansion phase, potentially pushing Bitcoin to revisit its cycle pattern seen in 2017 and 2021. A rally toward $150K to $175K would not be out of the question in such a case.

However, if the ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, the market may enter a consolidation phase. In this base-case scenario, Bitcoin would likely trade between $90K and $110K, with participants holding positions but not adding significant exposure. This range-bound behavior would suggest caution remains, despite a positive longer-term outlook.

A more cautious outlook emerges if the ratio drops toward 0.75 or lower. This would likely trigger profit-taking from short-term holders, putting pressure on the market and possibly driving Bitcoin down to the $70K–$85K range. Given that a correction has already taken place, Adler believes the first two scenarios are currently more probable. Still, macroeconomic risks—such as recession fears or geopolitical shocks—could tip the scale.

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be warming up for a decisive move, and the next few weeks may confirm whether this is the beginning of a breakout or a continuation of broader consolidation.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Challenge Key Resistance at $96K

Bitcoin is trading at $96,130, continuing its short-term uptrend after a sharp rally from the $81K level in mid-April. The daily chart shows strong momentum, with BTC now consolidating just below the $96K resistance zone—a level that previously acted as support in February and March before the breakdown. A successful breakout above this zone would open the door for a test of the psychological $100K level, followed by the next major resistance at $103,600.

Notably, both the 200-day SMA ($89,843) and 200-day EMA ($85,926) have been cleanly reclaimed during this recent move, signaling a clear shift in trend structure. Volume has remained steady during the rally, though a noticeable increase in buying pressure would help confirm continuation.

The current structure resembles a bullish continuation pattern, but BTC must break and close above the $96K mark with conviction to confirm upside momentum. Failure to do so may result in a pullback to retest support zones around $92K and $89K.

Overall, the trend remains bullish in the short term, but caution is warranted as the $96K–$100K range represents a critical supply zone where many sellers may step in. A decisive move in the coming days could shape Bitcoin’s direction for May.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView