Australia’s consumer spending surge may curb future RBA rate cuts

Australian consumers are loosening their wallets as rising disposable incomes and household wealth fuel spending, a lift for the economy that could also slow the pace of monetary easing if it continues, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock said.

“We are seeing the private sector start to demonstrate a little bit more growth now, which I think is positive,” Bullock said after a lecture in Perth late Wednesday, pointing to second-quarter GDP figures that surprised on the upside, largely due to household demand.

The momentum reflects stronger real disposable incomes as inflation cools and a wealth effect from climbing house prices. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish July household spending data at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.

On monetary policy, Bullock said the pickup in consumer spending could limit further easing: “If the momentum continues, there may not be many more rate cuts ahead. But it all depends.”

RBA holds fire on rates as Bullock flags tariff risks clouding global outlook

The RBA cut the cash rate in August for a third time this year to 3.6% and Bullock had signaled previously that several more reductions would be needed to calibrate with the central bank’s goals for employment and inflation.

Economists and money markets are forecasting the RBA will stand steady later this month before bringing in another rate cut in November. Policymakers will have fresh consumer and business sentiment surveys, up-to-date jobs figures, and August’s monthly CPI to consider ahead of their Sept. 29-30 meeting.

Regarding international trade, Bullock noted that the RBA’s worst-case scenario is yet to be seen, as most countries have not retaliated against President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Still, she said it’s still “a bit of a threat.” Australia was hit with the global baseline rate of 10%.

“The issue with U.S. tariffs is not just that they’ve risen sharply, but the unpredictability of how they’ll be applied—and not always for trade purposes,” she said. “They’re being used for all sorts of purposes.” As a result, Bullock warned that tariffs remain a big uncertain cloud hanging over the world economy.

Bullock pushes RBA tech overhaul as staff adapt to AI-driven transformation

Alongside monetary policy concerns, Governor Michele Bullock spotlighted the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) internal modernization drive, noting that staff are “feeling the weight” of its technological transformation agenda.

Speaking in Perth on Wednesday, Bullock said using big data and artificial intelligence could reshape policymaking by enhancing the bank’s ability to understand economic conditions, improve forecasting, and support more informed decisions. She acknowledged, however, that employees must integrate these tools while carrying out their regular responsibilities.

The governor also said that the RBA has been upgrading the technical underpinning of Australia’s payments and settlement systems. It’s also “fostering a culture of innovation” and “engaging more openly” with external partners, universities, research organizations, and industry experts,  to bring diverse perspectives and push its thinking. 

Bullock said that all this is hard. She noted that she would be dishonest if she didn’t say that the staff are feeling the weight of the heavy change agenda. Still, the anticipated rapid technological change in the years ahead presents exciting opportunities.”

Bullock named artificial intelligence, data science, and big data as the areas that could change the RBA. That spans how staff carry out their day-to-day responsibilities, how policymakers evaluate financial stability risks, and the analysis supporting monetary policy.

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