Canadian Dollar recovers as solid jobs data offsets Trump tariff fears

• The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rebounded after hitting a two-week low, following upbeat domestic labour market data.
• Canada added 83,100 jobs in June, sharply above expectations, while the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 6.9%.
• Trump targets Canada with 35% tariff starting August 1, citing fentanyl concerns and trade imbalances.
• Canadian PM Mark Carney defended Ottawa’s stance and vowed to protect Canadian workers and businesses.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) regains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, marking a two-week low during the early Asian trading session after US President Donald Trump announced a steep 35% tariff on Canadian imports, set to take effect on August 1.

While the initial reaction triggered a sharp sell-off in the Loonie, with USD/CAD surging to a daily high of 1.3730. However, the pair has since pulled back, trading around 1.3675 during the American session, as the Canadian Dollar finds support from stronger-than-expected domestic labour market data.

Canada’s labour market delivered a robust upside surprise in June, providing fresh support to the Canadian Dollar following a turbulent start to the day. Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 6.9%, defying market expectations for an increase of 7.1%. The Net Change in Employment surged to 83,100, a sharp acceleration from May’s modest 8,800 gain and well above forecasts.

The Labour Force Participation Rate also edged higher to 65.4% from 65.3%, signaling a slight increase in workforce engagement. However, Average Hourly Wages eased to 3.2% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in the previous month, pointing to some cooling in wage-driven inflation pressures.

On the trade front, the aggressive measures announced by President Trump have reignited fears of a renewed trade war, particularly as they target a close United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) partner. In an official letter shared via his Truth Social platform, Trump justified the 35% tariff by accusing Canada of failing to stem fentanyl trafficking and implementing "unfair trade barriers" on American dairy and agricultural exports. He claimed the move was necessary to “rebalance” the US$63 billion trade deficit with Canada and protect American workers, farmers, and manufacturers.

Trump warned that any retaliatory action from Ottawa would be met with even steeper tariffs, signaling a potentially volatile and prolonged disruption to US-Canada trade relations. Notably, the new tariffs will apply to a wide range of Canadian goods not protected under USMCA terms. In his letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump also emphasized that Canadian firms relocating operations to the United States would receive expedited regulatory treatment. “We will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — in other words, in a matter of weeks,” he wrote.

In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney defended Canada’s trade policies and efforts to combat illicit drug trafficking. In a post on X, Carney stated, “Throughout the current trade negotiations with the United States, the Canadian government has steadfastly defended our workers and businesses. We will continue to do so as we work towards the revised deadline of August 1.” His remarks reflect Ottawa’s firm stance against what it sees as unjustified protectionist measures, reinforcing its commitment to safeguarding national interests amid intensifying pressure from Washington.