USD/CHF edges higher to near 0.8050 ahead of Swiss Trade Balance data, US PMIs
- USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar gains ground after the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
- The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed that most members adopted a cautious stance on policy decisions.
- The newly imposed 39% US tariff on Swiss imports is expected to hit Switzerland’s export-driven economy.
USD/CHF appreciates after registering nearly 0.5% losses in the previous session, trading around 0.8050 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Minutes for the July 29-30 meeting on Wednesday. Swiss Trade Balance data will be eyed later in the day. Focus will be shifted to the preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due later in the North American session.
The Fed minutes indicated that most Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized that inflation risks outweighed labor market concerns during last month’s meeting, as tariffs deepened divisions among policymakers. Most policymakers considered it appropriate to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range.
The CME FedWatch tool indicated that Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in an 82% chance of a rate cut in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will be eyed at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming on Friday, which may provide further impetus for the September policy decision.
Swiss inflation remained below the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 2% target, bolstering expectations for further rate cuts, potentially back into negative territory. Additionally, the newly imposed 39% US duty on Swiss imports is set to weigh heavily on Switzerland’s export-driven economy and could increase pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to further ease policy.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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