Tesla Q3 Delivery Preview: After Best Monthly Gain in 2025, Can It Deliver Another Big Move?

TradingKey - Leading electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla (TSLA) is set to release its Q3 2025 delivery report on Thursday, October 2. After Tesla’s stock posted its best monthly performance of 2025 in September, Wall Street expects the automaker — which is regaining brand momentum — to deliver a strong quarter, potentially marking its best single-quarter performance of the year.

Multiple forecasting sources indicate that Tesla’s Q3 deliveries will significantly outpace the first two quarters, driven by:

• A pre-tax credit buying surge ahead of the U.S. EV tax credit expiration
• Strong demand for the new six-seat Model Y L in China
• CEO Elon Musk’s return to full-time leadership and efforts to repair brand image

According to FactSet, Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are expected to reach 447,750 vehicles, up over 16% from Q2’s 384,122, though still down 3.3% year-over-year from 462,890 in Q3 2024 — marking three consecutive quarters of YoY declines.

Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts 439,600 deliveries, a decline of about 5% YoY, but a notable improvement compared to the 13% drop in H1 2025.

Earlier this year, consumer and investor sentiment toward Tesla soured due to Musk’s political activities. However, after completing his role at the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), refocusing on Tesla, and mending relations with President Donald Trump, market confidence in Tesla’s growth outlook has rebounded sharply.

September Surge: A Record Month

Tesla’s stock surged 33% in September, its best monthly gain in 2025 and among the top performers in the S&P 500. Notably, shares have doubled since the April “Liberation Day” low, making it the strongest performer among the Magnificent Seven.

Challenges Remain

Despite the rally, Tesla continues to face headwinds:

• Aging product lineup
• Expiration of EV incentives
• Ongoing concerns over “Tesla politicization”

Zacks Investment Research said the Q3 delivery figures will be crucial for Tesla’s future direction, offering a chance to prove its core auto business has stabilized.

Real Concerns About Tesla’s Future

Yet, Tesla’s credibility in capital markets hasn’t fully recovered — a reflection of both softening EV demand and skepticism around its AI-driven valuation narrative.

Musk previously warned investors of “a few tough quarters ahead.”Cox Automotive believes Tesla likely benefited from a summer surge in U.S. EV purchases, but Q3 may be “mixed” overall, with expectations of further market share losses in the final months of 2025.

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson expects Q3 results could beat forecasts, but warns that Q4 sales will likely decline again.

He noted that Tesla and other EV makers are pulling out all stops to maximize Q3 deliveries — making headline numbers potentially “misleading,” as aggressive pricing and incentives could pressure margins.

BCA Research pointed out that Tesla’s P/E ratio remains sky-high, while profits are shrinking due to weak EV demand and fierce competition. The upcoming expiration of regulatory credits adds further downward pressure on sales.

Valuation Shift: From Cars to AI and Robots

Both Musk and Wall Street are increasingly shifting Tesla’s valuation framework away from automotive fundamentals toward futuristic narratives like robotics and AI.

Musk has stated that 80% of Tesla’s future value will come from its humanoid robot, Optimus. This vision underpins the board’s controversial proposal to award Musk a $1 trillion compensation package.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives advised investors to prepare for the next phase of Tesla’s autonomous AI journey, raising his price target from $500 to $600.

But BCA Research cautioned that investors are now buying Tesla based on hope, not fundamentals, noting that the company’s core business has “fundamentally deteriorated” over the past six months.

Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management went further, warning that Tesla’s core business is worth only $150 per share, and any premium paid for Robotaxi or Optimus is pure “Elon hyperbole.”

Wall Street Remains Divided

According to TradingKey, the average analyst target price for Tesla is $340.46, implying over 23% downside from current levels. Among the 54 analysts covering Tesla:

• 11 rate it as “Sell”
• 19 recommend “Hold”