It is now clear that the bar for a material FX reaction due to geopolitics is high, and the short-term fate of EUR/USD is predominantly an extension of US macro, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
"The looming US government shutdown is raising some upside risks for EUR/USD, which may test 1.180 in the next couple of days. That said, we still think JPY remains a more attractive way to play the shutdown."
"Also worth monitoring today is a central bank event in Helsinki, featuring speeches from several ECB members – including President Lagarde – alongside Riksbank Governor Thedéen and select Bank of England policymakers."