USD/CAD holds gains near 1.3850 amid increased risk aversion
- USD/CAD appreciates as market sentiment weakens following fresh Trump tariff threats on Russia.
- Trump also condemned European nations for purchasing Russian energy, insisting they are “financing the war against themselves.”
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted that the effects of US trade tariffs are becoming increasingly evident.
USD/CAD extends its winning streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3840 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from increased risk aversion, driven by the fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump against Russia.
At the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on Tuesday, President Trump warned that the United States (US) is ready to impose a “very strong round of powerful tariffs” if Russia refuses to end the war in Ukraine. Trump also criticized European countries for buying Russian energy, arguing that “they are funding the war against themselves,” and urged the EU to join Washington in implementing tariffs to ensure their effectiveness.
However, the Greenback faced challenges following the release of US S&P Global PMI figures for September on Tuesday. Composite PMI ticked down to 53.6 from 54.6 in August, pointing to a private sector that seems to be struggling to strengthen further. Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.0 from 53, signalling waning momentum in the sector. Services PMI slipped to 53.9 from 54.5, suggesting demand there may be easing.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted that ongoing impacts from Donald Trump's trade tariffs are becoming more noticeable and acknowledged that trade discussions between the US and Canada are still ongoing.
Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem noted on Monday that Canada will need to continue charting a "more independent course" away from the US, citing the US Dollar's recent performance across the market. Trump's attempts to influence the Fed are raising questions about the continued independence of US monetary policy, Macklem added.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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